Forwarded from another list I'm on. Chances are slim we'll get to see it here but as they said in The Thing "Keep watching the skies". patrick Begin forwarded message:

From: "Wayne Hally" Date: 19 September 2011 04:52:32 MDT To: <meteorobs@meteorobs.org> Subject: (meteorobs) UARS Satellite expected to reenter atmosphere in 3-5 days

Prepare for UFO and fireball reports!

This will be an uncontrolled reentry, so could occur anywhere from 57 degrees N to 57 degrees South latitude.

Latest estimate is Sept 23 +/- 1 day

The risk assessment is interesting reading:

http://www.nasa.gov/pdf/585584main_UARS_Status.pdf

Total dry mass at start 5668 kg

– Number of potentially hazardous objects expected to survive: 26 – Total mass of objects expected to survive: 532 kg – Estimated human casualty risk (updated to 2011): ~ 1 in 3200

• No NASA or USG human casualty reentry risk limits existed when UARS was designed, built, and launched.

• NASA, the USG, and some foreign space agencies now seek to limit human casualty risks from reentering space objects to less than 1 in 10,000.

• UARS is a moderate-sized space object. Uncontrolled reentries of objects more massive than UARS are not frequent, but neither are they unusual. – Combined Dragon mockup and Falcon 9 second stage reentry in June 2010 was more massive.

• Since the beginning of the space age, there has been no confirmed report of an injury resulting from reentering space objects.

• NASA, DoD, and the IADC will be monitoring the decay and reentry of UARS carefully.