Re: [Utah-astronomy] Japan Earthquake Discussion
The Youtube video concerns Jim Berkland, whose controversial earthquake prediction theory is rejected by mainstream U.S.G.S. geologists. The USGS canon is that: ``Many studies in the past have shown no significant correlations between the rate of earthquake occurrence and the semi-diurnal tides when using large earthquake catalogs. Several recent studies, however, have found a correlation between earth tides (caused by the position of the moon relative to the earth) and some types of earthquakes. One study, for example, concludes that during times of higher earth and ocean tides, such as during times of full or new moon, earthquakes are more likely on shallow thrust faults near the edges of continents and in (underwater) subduction zones. Lunar or solar eclipses represent, of course, special cases of full and new moon, but do not cause any special or different tidal effects from full and new moon. Earth tides (Earth's surface going up and down by a couple of centimeters) and especially ocean tides (surface of the ocean going up and down by a meter or more) raise and lower the confining pressure on shallow, dipping faults near continental edges and in subduction zones. When the confining pressure is lessened, the faults are unclamped and more likely to slip. The increased probability is a factor of ~3 during high tides. But you must stop are realize that the background probability is, in general, very low in a given place and year (fractions of a percent), so that raising this tiny probability by a factor of 3 during high tides still results in a very tiny probability.'' http://earthquake.usgs.gov/learn/faq/?faqID=109 Berkland, the self-published author of the online zine Syzyg ( http://www.syzygyjob.com/ ) , is a renegade geologist whose theory is that by taking a subset of high magnitude earthquakes, a valid statistical correlation can be found between extreme lunar perigees and major earthquakes. Use a search engine on ``Berkland earthquake controversial .'' See, e.g. - http://newsgroups.derkeiler.com/Archive/Sci/sci.geo.earthquakes/2006-01/msg0... As the USGS web FAQ notes, if you consider a larger population of earthquakes instead of cherry picking the data, Berkland's statistical correlation disappears. Every time a major earthquake - by chance alone - occurs near a full Moon, the press puts Berkland on the air without qualifying that earthquake prediction theories are not generally accepted by the scientific community. The opposite is not true. The Earth is about 80 times more massive than the Moon and gravitational tidal shear of the Moon caused by Earth's gravity is correspondingly higher. From the Apollo seismic stations left on the lunar surface, NASA collected good data on lunar earthquakes from nearside stations only. One type of lunar quake is known to be statistically correlated with Earth tidal shearing. There are two major types of lunar quakes - frequent surface quakes within the 20km crustal layer and deep quakes about 900 km down at the interface between the lunar core and mantel. The deep quakes are correlated with Earth tidal shear. The surface layer quakes are not. However, because both nearside and farside seismic stations were not placed on the Moon, science has a very incomplete picture of what the structure of the deep lunar mantel and core are. Our Apollo nearside stations only collected data from nearside quakes, and do the limited number of artificial impactors (spent boosters) they did not collect information from an artificial quake generated on the farside that traveled through the Moon. The whole question of what geologic structures are deep in the Moon that they are susceptible to Earth caused gravitational shearing is a tantalizing mystery that will have to be answered by future lunar missions. I have looked for, but have been unable to find, the ``more recent'' journal articles or geologic studies that the USGS web page refers to. If anyone knows what they are, please pass me a cite. Clear Skies - Kurt
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