I think "they" are timing these to weather that we can't possibly see an aurora in. :) ----- Forwarded message from aurorawarn@spacew.com ----- Date: Sat, 16 Dec 2006 10:22:07 +0000 (GMT) From: Mid or Low Latitude Aurora Warnings <aurorawarn@spacew.com> Reply-To: Mid or Low Latitude Aurora Warnings <aurorawarn@spacew.com> Subject: [Aurorawarn] Middle Latitude Auroral Activity Warning - 16-17 December To: aurorawarn@spacew.com MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WARNING Issued: 17:25 UTC on 15 December 2006 Solar Terrestrial Dispatch www.spacew.com VALID BEGINNING AT: 18:00 UTC ON 16 DECEMBER VALID UNTIL: 24:00 UTC (5 pm EDT) ON 17 DECEMBER HIGH RISK PERIOD: 17 DECEMBER (UTC DAYS) MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 16 - 17 DECEMBER PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES: 20, 50, 20, 10 (16 - 19 DECEMBER) POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY: MODERATE TO HIGH POTENTIAL DURATION OF THIS ACTIVITY: MAIN BELT = 12 HOURS MINOR BELT = 12-24 HOURS ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS: NEAR AND AFTER LOCAL MIDNIGHT EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE: MODERATE AFTER LOCAL MIDNIGHT OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES: FAIR TO GOOD AURORAL ACTIVITY *MAY* BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM... (THIS LINE IS VALID *ONLY* IF FAVORABLE STORM CONDITIONS OCCUR) OREGON TO SOUTHERN IDAHO TO WYOMING TO NORTHERN NEBRASKA TO IOWA TO ILLINOIS TO INDIANA TO OHIO TO DELAWARE. ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM... (THIS LINE IS VALID *ONLY* IF FAVORABLE STORM CONDITIONS OCCUR) NORTHERN FRANCE TO CENTRAL GERMANY TO POLAND TO BELARUS TO CENTRAL RUSSIA. NEW ZELAND AND EXTREME SOUTHERN AUSTRALIA MAY ALSO SPOT PERIODS OF ACTIVITY MODERATE TO STRONG ACTIVITY. SYNOPSIS... A strong X-class flare observed on 15 December was associated with a coronal mass ejection that is expected to impact the Earth anytime after approximately 16:00 UTC on 16 December with a preferred impact time near 22:00 UTC on 16 December (or 5 pm EST over North America). This disturbance is not expected to be as strong as the one that impacted on the 14th. However, it should still be capable of producing periods of moderate to strong auroral storming over widespread mid-latitude regions. A similar morphology to the last disturbance is likely to be observed, with the strongest portion of the disturbance commencing several hours after the impact. This warning will remain valid through 24:00 UTC (5 pm EST) on 17 December. It will be updated or allowed to expire at that time. For updated information, visit: http://www.spacew.com/aurora/forum.html. For real-time plots of current activity, visit: http://www.spacew.com/plots.html PLEASE REPORT VALID OBSERVATIONS OF AURORAL ACTIVITY TO: http://www.spacew.com/submitsighting.html ** End of Warning ** _______________________________________________ Aurorawarn mailing list Aurorawarn@spacew.com http://spacew.com/mailman/listinfo/aurorawarn ----- End forwarded message -----