I think even I could make predictions like that. It's going to rain tomorrow! (Doesn't rain) No, I misunderstood the charts. It will rain next Monday. (Doesn't rain) Er.. I really meant Friday... ----- Original Message ----- From: "Kurt Fisher" <fisherka@csolutions.net> To: <utah-astronomy@mailman.xmission.com> Sent: 2007-07-27 11:40 Subject: [Utah-astronomy] For Saturday's Sun Party - Will solar minimum everarrive?
Glad you enjoyed it, Julie. It looks like the experts - an official NOAA-NASA consensus panel that predicts these things - failed to reach a consensus after surveying 46 prediction studies!
http://www.sec.noaa.gov/SolarCycle/SC24/index.html
Minimum is predicted for March 2008 plus or minus six months - meaning it could be as early as this September. But the 11 member panel split 6-5 (sounds like the Supreme Court) on whether the maximum sunspot number for the next cycle will be:
1) a high 140 sunspot number, peaking in Oct. 2001, or,
2) "average" and will peak a year later at 90 ssn in August 2012.
But it looks like the panel has been continually setting the date back for solar minimum based on continuing observations. See -
"Previous target dates and counter re-sets: January 1, 2007 set on June 1, 2006 June 1 ,2007 set on January 1, 2007 March 1, 2008 set on June 1, 2007"
http://www.solarstorms.org/SNextCycle.html
- Kurt
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