There must exist in reality a real probability of an asteroid of various given sizes to hit Earth within a certain time frame. Factors would include gravitational attraction of Earth and Asteroid, effects of other graviational fields, given courses and number of asteroids available. The problem is that we don't know all the trajectories, and near Earth passing asteroids that exist in the solar system. Jupiter does have a greater gravitational pull then Earth, and also has a larger size to better attract near Jupiter passing asteriods, when compared to Earth. Earth has had two close passages of asteroids in the past ten years. To better locate more near Earth passing asteroids, it is my understanding that an observatory on the far side of the Moon, would increase our ability to detect asteroids, presently not detected. Some indirect methods could involve ultra-sensitive recordings of Earth's gravitational fluctuations, in relation to other objects in the solar system. The two asteroids that came close to Earth were not detected until they were extremely close by astronomical standards. J. David Baxter
From: utah-astronomy-request@mailman.xmission.com Subject: Utah-Astronomy Digest, Vol 77, Issue 66 To: utah-astronomy@mailman.xmission.com Date: Fri, 24 Jul 2009 09:26:25 -0600
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Today's Topics:
1. Re: Sigh... (Kim) 2. Re: Sigh... (Daniel Holmes) 3. Re: Statistical mythbusting. (erikhansen@TheBlueZone.net)
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Message: 1 Date: Fri, 24 Jul 2009 08:41:56 -0600 From: "Kim" <kimharch@cut.net> To: "'Utah Astronomy'" <utah-astronomy@mailman.xmission.com> Subject: Re: [Utah-astronomy] Sigh... Message-ID: <D80C1D7695AB4B75A8CB06FAC17D1613@OFFICEDESK1> Content-Type: text/plain; charset="us-ascii"
Remember, Julie, the whole point of religion isn't logic but faith. I'm comfortable with both, but I have my limits. My personal faith doesn't require that I be irrational.
How's this: There is evidence that there may be an infinite number of "universes". So, God doesn't need to create life elsewhere in this universe; when he (I know siding with a male-gendered God isn't necessarily PC) wants to populate another world he simply creates another universe. This, by the way, isn't my personal view - just another possibility, and my faith also allows for possibilities.
Kim
-----Original Message----- From: utah-astronomy-bounces@mailman.xmission.com [mailto:utah-astronomy- bounces@mailman.xmission.com] On Behalf Of Julie Chorley Sent: Friday, July 24, 2009 7:49 AM To: Utah Astronomy Subject: Re: [Utah-astronomy] Sigh...
Well, to quote one of my favorite books.. "What a waste of space." How can anyone believe that we could be the only living beings in such a mind-bogglingly huge universe? Even from a religious standpoint, does it make sense for God to have created all this, just for us? It's not logical, no matter how you look at it.
Julie
On Fri, Jul 24, 2009 at 4:12 AM, Patrick Wiggins <paw@wirelessbeehive.com>wrote:
I'm just back home after my talk last evening at Bryce Canyon National Park and I'm a bid saddened.
This is my 23rd year of doing monthly programs at Bryce and my favorite part has always been the interaction with the audience afterwards.
But after last evening's talk a guy came up to me saying he wanted to play devil's advocate. I told him "Great!" and asked what was on his mind.
At the end of my talks I always close with the Hubble Ultra Deep Field and use it to come up with a rough idea of how many stars there may be in our Universe and then note that with all of those stars out there made up of the same stuff as our Sun it's hard for me to imagine that we happen to be so lucky to have the only star with the only planet with life.
Well, the guy took exception to that. He was calm, collected and well spoken, but thought that since God had created only us (here on Earth) there's no reason to believe that there is life elsewhere.
We went back and forth for a minute or two and finally I said we'd just have to agree to disagree and he walked away.
My one bit of consolation was that the small crowd that had gathered around us was vocally on my side.
But it still bothers me that otherwise rational people will place religious beliefs over those of science without even giving science a chance.
Ok, time to get News out so I'll stop here. I just needed to vent.
patrick
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-- Julie Chorley _______________________________________________ Utah-Astronomy mailing list Utah-Astronomy@mailman.xmission.com http://mailman.xmission.com/cgi-bin/mailman/listinfo/utah-astronomy Visit the Photo Gallery: http://www.slas.us/gallery2/main.php Visit the Wiki: http://www.utahastronomy.com Checked by AVG - www.avg.com Version: 8.5.392 / Virus Database: 270.13.11/2232 - Release Date: 07/23/09 18:00:00
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Message: 2 Date: Fri, 24 Jul 2009 14:42:52 +0000 From: "Daniel Holmes" <danielh@holmesonics.com> To: "Utah Astronomy" <utah-astronomy@mailman.xmission.com> Subject: Re: [Utah-astronomy] Sigh... Message-ID: <770730517-1248446581-cardhu_decombobulator_blackberry.rim.net-626931948-@bxe1293.bisx.prod.on.blackberry>
Content-Type: text/plain
It was just practice. Seventy-gazillion-trillion tries makes perfect.
When I was living in Denver, my neighbors wouldn't let their kids look through my scope after I told them how far away m31 was.
Dan Sent from my BlackBerry. Please excuse any mispelings or typos.
-----Original Message----- From: Julie Chorley <jchorley@gmail.com>
Date: Fri, 24 Jul 2009 07:49:11 To: Utah Astronomy<utah-astronomy@mailman.xmission.com> Subject: Re: [Utah-astronomy] Sigh...
Well, to quote one of my favorite books.. "What a waste of space." How can anyone believe that we could be the only living beings in such a mind-bogglingly huge universe? Even from a religious standpoint, does it make sense for God to have created all this, just for us? It's not logical, no matter how you look at it.
Julie
On Fri, Jul 24, 2009 at 4:12 AM, Patrick Wiggins <paw@wirelessbeehive.com>wrote:
I'm just back home after my talk last evening at Bryce Canyon National Park and I'm a bid saddened.
This is my 23rd year of doing monthly programs at Bryce and my favorite part has always been the interaction with the audience afterwards.
But after last evening's talk a guy came up to me saying he wanted to play devil's advocate. I told him "Great!" and asked what was on his mind.
At the end of my talks I always close with the Hubble Ultra Deep Field and use it to come up with a rough idea of how many stars there may be in our Universe and then note that with all of those stars out there made up of the same stuff as our Sun it's hard for me to imagine that we happen to be so lucky to have the only star with the only planet with life.
Well, the guy took exception to that. He was calm, collected and well spoken, but thought that since God had created only us (here on Earth) there's no reason to believe that there is life elsewhere.
We went back and forth for a minute or two and finally I said we'd just have to agree to disagree and he walked away.
My one bit of consolation was that the small crowd that had gathered around us was vocally on my side.
But it still bothers me that otherwise rational people will place religious beliefs over those of science without even giving science a chance.
Ok, time to get News out so I'll stop here. I just needed to vent.
patrick
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-- Julie Chorley _______________________________________________ Utah-Astronomy mailing list Utah-Astronomy@mailman.xmission.com http://mailman.xmission.com/cgi-bin/mailman/listinfo/utah-astronomy Visit the Photo Gallery: http://www.slas.us/gallery2/main.php Visit the Wiki: http://www.utahastronomy.com
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Message: 3 Date: Fri, 24 Jul 2009 09:26:15 -0600 (MDT) From: erikhansen@TheBlueZone.net To: "Utah Astronomy" <utah-astronomy@mailman.xmission.com> Subject: Re: [Utah-astronomy] Statistical mythbusting. Message-ID: <40816.66.182.79.254.1248449175.squirrel@webmail.thebluezone.net> Content-Type: text/plain;charset=iso-8859-1
As Clint Eastwood's character Harry Callaghan said "do you feel lucky?", in our lifetimes the chances Yellowstone Volcano erupting and a asteriod/meteor impact are outside possibilities, but both will happen.
How many times has the earth had impacts in the past? How many volcanic eruptions? Of course many more major super volcanic eruptions and a major eruption is more likely to occur before an impact event, but look at the moon and recently Jupiter and it seems an impact will occur in the future. Lets hope we are lucky enough to miss out on it. I recall, like Chuck said, the Astronomical community is the group pushing the idea that an impact is a certain.
Can such a relatively rare event even have statistics even applied to it?
Erik
You're tilting at the wrong windmill, Daniel. Since you quoted my post,
I'm assuming you are addressing my statement as well as Kim's.
Planetary scientists and astronomy popularizers are the ones pushing this idea; the same scientists who are publicly rallying for a more complete inventory of earth-orbit-crossing objects.
They are the ones you need to write your letter of objection to. Or the media who give them a platform, I suppose. I'm sure they'd love to play semantic games with you.
On Thu, Jul 23, 2009 at 7:16 PM, daniel turner <outwest112@yahoo.com> wrote:
I would like to address the concept that the earth is "due" for a Tunguska size impact event. So as far as Tunguska is concerned, you should go out and buy a bunch of green bananas with the full confidence that you have plenty of time for them to ripen. Impact events are never "due".
--- On Thu, 7/23/09, Chuck Hards <chuck.hards@gmail.com> wrote:
From: Chuck Hards <chuck.hards@gmail.com> Subject: Re: [Utah-astronomy] Asteroid or Comet Collision With Earth Probability To: "Utah Astronomy" <utah-astronomy@mailman.xmission.com> Date: Thursday, July 23, 2009, 5:21 PM BTW, for the worriers among us, some scientists feel that the earth is overdue for a "nuclear" sized impact; one big enough to cause major disruptions or even mass extinction. Thus the current emphasis on finding and cataloging objects that cross earth's orbit. (Get busy, Patrick!) ;o)
Combat soldiers are fond of saying that you never hear the one (bullet) that gets you...
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End of Utah-Astronomy Digest, Vol 77, Issue 66 **********************************************