Before everyone wets themselves over a predicted ZHR of 100-200, remember that the actual peak will in all probability not last anywhere near an hour. Extrapolating from the few recorded outburts, peak activity may only be for a few minutes. That said, one never knows until it happens. On 8/31/07, Kurt Fisher <fisherka@csolutions.net> wrote:
As noted in Patrick's news, tomorrow morning's alf Aur shower peak (5:33 am MDT) may have the potential for a 100-200 zhr rate. Unlike the Persids, the alf Aur radiant will be well-positioned at a high 60-70 deg altitude, although a near quarter Moon and the Sun at -14 deg alt presents sky wash-out problems. The predicted high-magnitudes of the meteors from the shower are expected to overcome this constraint.
The two leading researchers on meteor shower prediction are Peter Jenniskens and Jérémie Vaubaillon. Jenniskens is guessing ~200 zhr; Vaubaillon is being more conservative: "For the level, I personnally think that ZHR~100 will be reached AT BEST, but some colleagues are more optimistic, so, suspense, suspense!!!"