I was mainly referring recent cuts and asking the private sector to develop the heavier launch vehicles. ATK for example was used to zero risk, now they have been asked to risk their own capital. They seemed very upset with the budget cuts and this notion. Again, I do think manned space flight needs to continue. However there are some details that should be resolved first, more research needs to be done before we can build a moon base and go on to Mars. We need proven technology to produce the water they need. I think we put the cart before the horse in that case.
I was also referring to research outside of NASA, my health care experience made me aware of much needed research in a lot of areas. We need more investment in over all science. We all benefit from the satellite technologies and we pay for them with or satellite dishes and smart phones. I do feel much of our economic woes is due to foreign government subsidizes of business. IE, foreign business do not pay for health care, their government does. Labor cost is higher in US. It seems part of the problem, in getting the private sector
to pick up the slack on space cuts, is that space exploration is not likely to be profitable.
Erik, I am not up on this stuff, but my impression is that there is a very profitable market for commercial satellite launches, an area where the U.S. private market was dominant with the Delta IV and Atlas V expendable vehicles. The private U.S. industry has lost market share to relatively new entrants like the EU (Arianespace), Russia (International Launch Services and Starsem), Japan (Launch Services Alliance, a Boeing-Mitsubishi joint-venture) and now China. < http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/usa/2010-10/21/content_11439701.htm >. One wikipage notes that "In 2005 there were 18 total commercial launches and 37 non-commercial launches. [Of the 18 commercial launches,] Russia flew 44% of commercial orbital launches, while Europe had 28% and the United States had 6%." I understand the Russians have a lot of spare ICBM boosters and can undercut their competitors. On the other hand, Sea Launch, the main totally commercial U.S. provider, launched 6 satellites but then filed for bankruptcy in 2009 due to the economic downturn and government-subsidized overseas competition.
It looks like the federal government's support for SpaceX and their Falcon platform is based, in part, on creating a cheap, economically competitive ITAR-free (International Trade and Arms Regulation) launcher that can sold throughout the world, but that does not contain security sensitive U.S. military technology found in the private versions of the Delta IV and Atlas boosters. Because the Delta IV and Atlas are based on military technology, they have to be launched from the U.S. and remain under U.S. control (even if privately launched). That makes them more expensive.
Another U.S. FAA report estimates the total economic activity of the U.S. commercial space industry as: "In 2009, [Commercial space transportation and enabled industries of the launch vehicle manufacturing and services industry] generated a total of $208.3 billion in economic activity in the United States. Over one million people throughout the country were employed as a result of this activity, with earnings that exceeded $53 billion."
No small bit of change. Sorry to see SeaLaunch go; maybe we should give them a few hundred million to keep the heart of an infant U.S. private competitor beating.
Clear Skies, Kurt
U.S. FAA Office of Commercial Space Flight SemiAnnual Space Launch Market Report http://www.faa.gov/about/office_org/headquarters_offices/ast/media/2010-2%20...
U.S. FAA Office of Commercial Space Flight. The Economic Impact of Commercial Space Transportation on the U.S. Economy in 2009, September 2010 http://www.faa.gov/about/office_org/headquarters_offices/ast/media/Economic%...
U.S. FAA Office of Commercial Space Flight with market overview reports http://www.faa.gov/about/office_org/headquarters_offices/ast/
Jeff Frost. 10/19/2009. How competitive is commercial launch? Space Review http://www.thespacereview.com/article/1493/1
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