Hey Chuck (with others looking on), Chuck Hards wrote:
Some of the folks I know in the "industry" (admittedly far fewer than Patrick) feel that the number of weatlthy tourists & enthusiasts paying "big bucks" will not last that long and dry up rather quickly, (especially after the first accident that kills someone, which WILL happen, unfortunately) so the tourism thing is definitely not an industry sustainer for long.
I really don't see it that way. I mean look at all the people who have died in connection with space flight (most recently a few dozen in Brazil when a launch vehicle exploded). Despite this NASA is still having to reject far more astronaut applicants than they accept. Space flight is hazardous but ask most anyone who is involved in potentially hazardous hobbies like flying, black power cannons, skydiving, race car driving (to name a few) and chances are you'll hear that the danger is part of the attraction. Yes, people are going to continue to die in pursuit of the dream but people have always died in pursuit of their dreams. But if the dream is meaningful and universal (as I think space flight is) it will be attained despite the costs.
A huge infrastructure will be needed... Eventually, yes, just as with the railroad, motor car and airplane. It's part of the dream.
tickets priced closer to commercial airline rates will be needed for that... Agreed. And that's the sort of thing the X-Prize and its ilk are inspiring.
, and a more cost-effective
alternative to chemical rockets will be needed for that. Distant-future scenario. I really don't think it's that far off (unless by Distant-future you mean 10 or 20 years). Right up until the Wrights actually pulled it off there were those who said heavier than air flight was a long ways off. and I've always liked that piece in the NY Times in 1939 saying that flights to the Moon were impossible and would never happen.
We humans are pretty stupid in some ways but there are always those that overcome and inspire and _DO_.
The "shaking in their boots" quote was taken from a story on the AOL home page I subscribe to... Actually it would not surprise me if Rutan said it. I've never met the man but I can't help but believe the persona one sees in the media is not the whole person.
Ok, enough of this. I'm headed for the airport in pursuit of the part of the dream that I can accomplish today. Patrick