Joe, We are simply not talking about comparable scenarios. Robotic probes are a long way from having the kind of "situational awareness" that humans have. That is one reason that the work done by Spirit and Opportunity could have been done in a few days by humans versus the years that the probes have been on the surface. For the near future, robotic probes are only capable of collecting data. The data must still be analyzed by humans at home on Earth. Probes capable of doing both on the spot (read: people) are a much better solution.
From what I understand, the studies to which you refer are just that: purely conceptual at this point. The technologies to get to Mars are being developed right now and are decades beyond the conceptual stage. Comparing the development of manned space exploration within our own solar system to the development of any kind of interstellar travel is an apples-and-oranges argument. They are not analogous. That said, I surely hope that we can develop technologies to launch probes to explore distant worlds, but the pool for a launch date for the first exoplanet mission is one to which I won't be contributing any of my money.
Kim -----Original Message----- From: utah-astronomy-bounces@mailman.xmission.com [mailto:utah-astronomy-bounces@mailman.xmission.com] On Behalf Of Joe Bauman Sent: Wednesday, January 02, 2008 2:37 PM To: Utah Astronomy Subject: Re: [Utah-astronomy] Happy New Year (belated) It may be fantasy now to imagine going to exoplanets, but it certainly is not science fiction to talk about exploring them remotely. An exoplanet atmosphere already has been analyzed. Soon we'll be able to detect and analyze much smaller ones. The cost of getting boots on Mars, undoubtedly some uninteresting place because we don't want to risk lives on tumbled terrain, would be far greater than concentrating on the real science of exoplanets. A Mars landing would have no practical payback beyond just doing it. I doubt there's any science that humans can be done there that can't be done better by robots. And someday it just might happen that there's a breakthrough in transportation and some kind of interstellar exploration by robot IS possible. I've heard of studies involving accelerating small probes to extreme speeds. For all we know, inhabited exoplanets could be as close as five light-years. If we could develop a drive to accelerate probes to half the speed of life, we might see cities on another planet 15 or 20 years after launching a probe. At the same time, we're talking about a 20 to 35 year project to go to Mars, at extreme cost. I say let's talk about options other than letting a few astronauts bounce around on the sands of Mars. -- jb Internal Virus Database is out-of-date. Checked by AVG Free Edition. Version: 7.5.503 / Virus Database: 269.15.31/1128 - Release Date: 11/13/2007 11:09 AM