Joe, I have remained silent for a while, but can't continue to do so. The evidence for rapid recent temperature increases is overwhelming, but not certain (is anything?). We know that we are dumping enormous quantities of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, and we know what those gases do. We also know that we are wiping out forests all over the world, thus reducing the buffering ability of the system. Why would it be a surprise to anyone that we are causing a change? I realize that there have been wide variations on climate in the past, and that it is difficult to separate our actions from the natural variability, but I don't think it takes a great leap of logic to see that we may be causing substantial change. Even small changes in global temperature can have dramatic consequences. The ecosystem can easily adjust to such changes, but we can't! Even small changes in sea level would be catastrophic for humans because of the way we have chosen to distribute ourselves on the planet. I personally know several scientists (at NOAH in Boulder, Colorado) who have no axe to grind and who are absolutely convinced on this issue. Also, consider the consequences of our actions.... if we are wrong about global warming but take action anyway, we may spend some money, but we will have cleaner air and more efficient factories and transportation, etc. What is the down side? If we are right, then we may help avert a global disaster and show a little bit of our human intelligence and ability to adapt our own actions to accommodate increases in our understanding. Either way, action now means we win! Every time we have asked corporate America to take action on pollution, they respond by saying that it will break the bank. That has never been the case. I am glad that past generations took action on pollution, and I hope that we can do the same. I just hope we get a President soon who is willing to consider the costs and potential benefits and then take action. The rest of the world looks at us and shakes it head in disbelief. I am tired of leaders who ignore the science in favor of profits. The US needs to be a leader on this issue, not a ball and chain! That is my 2-cents worth. Please don't be offended Joe, but I just couldn't sit still for this thread. Cheers, Tyler Allred _____________________________________________ -----Original Message----- From: utah-astronomy-bounces+tylerallred=earthlink.net@mailman.xmission.com [mailto:utah-astronomy-bounces+tylerallred=earthlink.net@mailman.xmission.co m] On Behalf Of Joe Bauman Sent: Thursday, November 09, 2006 11:04 AM To: Utah Astronomy Subject: Re: [Utah-astronomy] Climate chaos? Not to beat a dead horse with a hockey stick, but I found this comment by Mr. Gettings to be especially important: "In practice, we use boreholes that are deep enough to get the last 200-500 years, and we use an analysis method that looks for a pre-instrumental mean temperature. For the northern hemisphere, this indicates roughly 1C of warming in the last 200 years. Our more recent work (such as the paper referenced above) has been on reconciling the difference between the proxy results, which often show 0.5-0.6 C of warming, with our results." So there has been 1 C of warming in the last 200 years -- except that with their more recent research, that has dropped to 0.5 to 0.6 degrees. I repeat: How can such a tiny shift in 200 years result in all these supposedly catastrophic changes, even assuming humans are responsible? Is our ecosystem so finely balanced that it can't stand a change of half a degree over 200 years. Since the average temperature of the Arctic is -- who knows? But it must be really cold. How do you get from there (a degree or half a degree in 200 years) to here (man caused serious global warming that is melting the world's ice caps)? It seems ludicrous, yet everybody seems to subscribe to the theory and dump on anyone with doubts. Sorry to make anyone mad -- Joe _______________________________________________ Utah-Astronomy mailing list Utah-Astronomy@mailman.xmission.com http://mailman.xmission.com/cgi-bin/mailman/listinfo/utah-astronomy Visit the Photo Gallery: http://www.utahastronomy.com