Erik, "What happened to the ice sheets? Did they melt to the same extent they are today? Yes, the ice sheets melted. It is my understanding that Greenland was more habitable during the Middle Ages than it is today so that would very likely be the case. Greenland From Wikipedia , " At that time, the inner regions of the long fjords where the settlements were located were very different from today. Excavations show that there were considerable birch woods with birch trees up to 4 to 6 meters high in the area around the inner parts of the Tunuliarfik- and Aniaaq-fjords, the central area of the Eastern settlement, and the hills were grown with grass and willow brushes. This was due to the medieval climate optimum. The Norse soon changed the vegetation by cutting down the trees to use as building material and for heating and by extensive sheep and goat grazing during summer and winter. The climate in Greenland was much warmer during the first centuries of settlement but became increasingly colder in the 14th and 15th centuries with the approaching period of colder weather known as the Little Ice Age." See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_Greenland Also, see the temperature graph taken from deep ice cores in the middle of the article. How did polar bears survive that?" All of the current species obviously survived but some, unknown to us, species may have perished. " The most telling impacts of climate change on polar bears have been noted in western Hudson Bay, where declines in their body condition, reproduction, and survival have resulted in a 22% reduction in subpopulation size between 1987 and 2004." 'The evidence for climate change affects on polar bears is not definitive. The definitive effects will come when subpopulations disappear. The status of the various subpopulations of polar bears varies widely: Some are in decline due to climate change effects, and others are not showing any indications of change. The effects of climate change can differ in space and time, but only two or three subpopulations are monitored adequately to be able to confirm long-term trends in abundance and thus provide some insight into what may befall the species over a broader area." See http://www.actionbioscience.org/environment/derocher.html Don -----Original Message----- From: utah-astronomy-bounces@mailman.xmission.com [mailto:utah-astronomy-bounces@mailman.xmission.com] On Behalf Of erikhansen@TheBlueZone.net Sent: Tuesday, March 10, 2009 12:17 PM To: Utah Astronomy Subject: Re: [Utah-astronomy] Another Historical Temperature Graph
Don,
I am not sure I agree with cap and trade, I do think encouraging people to use solar and wind in their home construction would not affect people who can't afford homes. I heard the proclamation by CORE their concerns should be addressed, I remember their objectivity had some room for question. Lower natural gas, electric, and gasoline demand might benefit the poor as well as increased supply (using alternatives could do both). In the near future, much more can be done to reduce demand. I was being on the conservative side of water use for oil shale. Some sources have said it is a high as 3-4 times the water per barrel of oil, still in the range of "several". I do agree it should be explored, but I do want the government to be careful what they allow. The Colorado River water is all ready being over alloted. Back to middle ages. Are we/you saying global temps were much higher then than today? What happened to the ice sheets? Did they melt to the same extent they are today? How did polar bears survive that? (accepting they were likely hunted less then) Thanks for the respectful replies, Erik Erik,
Water is a major problem with current techniques for oil shale production, but if in-situ methods can be used and much of the water recycled, than it may not be as much of a problem. I certainly would want any oil shale production to be done in the most environmentally friendly way possible. It is something that deserves careful and reasonable consideration since we have potential recoverable oil shale reserves in Colorado, Utah and Wyoming of over one trillion barrels - more than the total Middle East conventional reserves.
"Still the question remains what would have happened in middle ages if man was putting the gases in the air we are today. Would man have been adversely affected if our population numbers of today existed then."
I don't know. But I think we need an open and complete debate about the causes and mechanisms of climate change. In Monday's Wall Street Journal they interviewed many prominent people about global warming including Al Gore on one side and Vaclav Klaus, President of the Czech Republic on the other. Klaus, who was trained as an economist, stated: " As a person who spent almost 50 years of his life in a communist country, I know how crazy it is to introduce schemes like cap and trade and similar ideas, how devastating and damaging for the economy all those ideas really are." And "I am afraid that a serious debate about the issue (global warming) has not yet started. What we are witnessing are monologues, a conference of believers in (manmade) global warming. The debate has not yet started. Nevertheless, I'm afraid the politicians have already accepted the idea, understood that it's a good political project, and now things are moving in a way which I consider extremely dangerous. He then adds, " But I would like to make one thing clear, lets really differentiate the protection of the environment from the debate about global warming and decarbonizing the economy. I am not against the protection of the environment. I am against global-warming alarmism. Those are conceptually, structurally, two totally different issues."... "To win an argument you must have a potential place to argue, but I am afraid that does not exist anymore. And to speak of scientific consensus about global warming, it's not true. To speak about a very strong relationship between carbon dioxide and the temperature in the world, again, not true. And I am really frustrated, I must say."
The proposals to reduce greenhouse gas emissions will hurt the poor the most as Roy Inniss, National Chairman, Congress of Racial Equality (CORE), has been proclaiming. Lower energy costs correlate with people getting out of poverty worldwide, while high energy cost force many into poverty and even starvation. The cap and trade proposals will substantially drive up energy prices worldwide. Let's have a real debate about the causes of climate change before spending trillions to fight a problem that may not exist.
Don
-----Original Message----- From: utah-astronomy-bounces@mailman.xmission.com [mailto:utah-astronomy-bounces@mailman.xmission.com] On Behalf Of erikhansen@TheBlueZone.net Sent: Tuesday, March 10, 2009 10:00 AM To: Utah Astronomy Subject: Re: [Utah-astronomy] Another Historical Temperature Graph
Don,
I looked at both you links thanks. I have not seen what they think the cause of the Middle Ages warming was. The graph did appear to be slanting upward, it will be interesting to see what happens in next five years. If it ticks up again it seems that will indicate gradual warming. Not using tree-ring data does seem valid but it does not contain much data of upper atmosphere vs lower atmospheric temperatures.
Still the question remains what would have happened in middle ages if man was putting the gases in the air we are today. Would man have been adversely affected if our population numbers of today existed then. It seems premature to claim man can't effect it. IE: Increasing Greenhouse Gases unchecked for next 50 years. If extreme warming can occur period (with or without mans influence), shouldn't we a least plan for the future? Some of what Plan B calls for.
I am interested in your opinion on Oil Shale. Can it be practical to produce a lot of Oil? or: Do the water demands dictate that it can be developed only on a very limited basis?
Erik
See
http://www.drroyspencer.com/global-warming-background-articles/2000-years-of
-global-temperatures/
-----Original Message----- From: utah-astronomy-bounces@mailman.xmission.com [mailto:utah-astronomy-bounces@mailman.xmission.com] On Behalf Of Don J. Colton Sent: Tuesday, March 10, 2009 8:39 AM To: 'Utah Astronomy' Subject: Re: [Utah-astronomy] Latest Global Temperature Data
See http://www.drroyspencer.com/latest-global-temperatures/
And a short summary of Roy Spencer's research http://www.drroyspencer.com/global-warming-natural-or-manmade/
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