I just did some quick, back of the envelope calculations on the energy in MN2004. They show that its kinetic energy is equivalent to 8.17E8 tons of TNT - that's 817 megatons of TNT. This is based on a mass of 4.6E10 kg., and an impact velocity of 1.24E4 m/sec. Assuming ALL of the energy of three 50 megaton blasts went into changing the velocity of the asteroid, it wouldn't change the impact effect all that much. Of course, since its velocity changed, it would delay its impact until another revolution, or eliminate it all together. Unfortunately, since these blasts would be impulses, and not steady applied forces, chances of the velocity changing may be small, and the result only be that the mass of the asteroid still impacts the earth and its atmosphere. Now, however, it would be radioactive. What would be the effect of all those radioactive particles, boulders, and gases striking the earth? Would it destroy the upper layers of the atmosphere, and leave us without vital protection against UV, etc.? BTW, Krakatoa was 200 megatons. The 800 megaton blast would be very survivable for MOST (>99.999%) of the life on earth. Oh well, its going to miss us anyway. But the estimate is that it would be as bright as magnitude 3.3 as it passes by. That should be a real show! --- Chuck Hards <chuckhards@yahoo.com> wrote:
Daniel, sorry if I wasn't clear, I was talking about a surface hit, "near miss" meaning away from a 'geographical' center. Besides, it's only 1/3 of a kilometer in diameter. Several H-bombs could easily vaporize it if spaced appropriately on the surface, or at least make the resulting fragments small enough to not worry about. And last time I checked, Newtonian physics still worked even in the absence of an atmosphere. Surface detonations, on the right spot, would be a dandy reaction engine for deflection purposes even if it stayed in one piece. The bomb plan is still a good contender.
--- daniel turner <outwest112@yahoo.com> wrote:
What causes the most destruction from a nuclear bomb on earth is the blast wave traveling through the atmosphere. No atmosphere, no blast wave. So the bomb on the surface or nearby would only have the effect of from the light of the fireball. This would just put a fine pottery glaze on a silicate rich asteroid. What you need is for Bruce Willis to drill a hole to the center of the asteroid and seal the shaft before detonation. This would cause the formation of a plasma gas whose pressure would burst the asteroid like cherry bomb in a cantaloupe. Those who have done THAT experiment find that you end up with large chunks instead of small pieces. So you would end trade one large problem for several smaller problems the biggest of which could be half of the original asteroid.
We need another plan.
DT
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