Happy New Year to you, too. Thirty years before a crewed mission to Mars? That's as good as saying "Never." Too much changes in so long a period of time. The stuff I'm reading says twenty years may be more realistic, yet there's still a real threat of the public losing interest because of the long lead time. Assuming that the federal budget permits our nation the luxury of such a thing, then the way I'm predicting this will shake out goes along these lines: 2018 to about 2025 we spend on the Moon figuring out how to spend extended periods of time on the surface of another world. It turns out that while our technology in 1970 was adequate to spend a couple of days on the Moon, attempting to spend and entire week there would have been disastrous. Meanwhile, we're sending more advanced robotic missions to explore Mars and have a go at a couple of sample return missions. If the sample return missions indicate no potential for nasty biological interactions, either Earth-to-Mars or Mars-to-Earth, and we've figured out how to keep astronauts sane and productive on 30-month missions, and we're confident that we can not only place objects reliably into Martian orbits but also get large objects in Martian orbits safely back to Earth, then the thinking is that a crewed mission to Mars could leave Earth around 2025 - 2030. Of course, we haven't got so much as a clue about what the national mood will be ten years from now, let alone in 25 years, nor can we accurately predict where funding for this adventure stacks-up against other national funding priorities. And yes, Patrick should sign up. Seth -----Original Message----- From: utah-astronomy-bounces@mailman.xmission.com [mailto:utah-astronomy-bounces@mailman.xmission.com] On Behalf Of Kim Sent: Wednesday, January 02, 2008 10:46 AM To: 'Utah Astronomy' Subject: [Utah-astronomy] Happy New Year (belated) I just realized that I hadn't wished a Happy New Year to some of my best and oldest friends. ("Just who are you calling old?" - thought I should beat anyone to that line.) So, all the best for a good year. I hope you all keep improving...and enjoy clear (clearer) skies. I rang in the new year by watching much of "Mars Rising" on the Discovery Channel - I think. For anyone who hasn't seen the program, I thought it was very well done. And you get to listen to William Shatner not being cheeky for a change. I hope that we get there in my life time. We should begin a pool for the landing date. If we start now and bank the money, it could be worth quite a bit by the time we launch. Anyway, the program suggested that a Mars mission might be 30 years out. I'm thinking much longer, in part because a 30-year occupation of Iraq now seems much more likely than a mission to Mars. Oops, there I go getting political. Sorry. So, does anyone have thoughts on a Mars mission, such as technology, timing, should Patrick volunteer, etc.? Kim Internal Virus Database is out-of-date. Checked by AVG Free Edition. Version: 7.5.503 / Virus Database: 269.15.31/1128 - Release Date: 11/13/2007 11:09 AM _______________________________________________ Utah-Astronomy mailing list Utah-Astronomy@mailman.xmission.com http://mailman.xmission.com/cgi-bin/mailman/listinfo/utah-astronomy Visit the Photo Gallery: http://gallery.utahastronomy.com Visit the Wiki: http://www.utahastronomy.com