As noted in Patrick's news, tomorrow morning's alf Aur shower peak (5:33 am MDT) may have the potential for a 100-200 zhr rate. Unlike the Persids, the alf Aur radiant will be well-positioned at a high 60-70 deg altitude, although a near quarter Moon and the Sun at -14 deg alt presents sky wash-out problems. The predicted high-magnitudes of the meteors from the shower are expected to overcome this constraint.
The two leading researchers on meteor shower prediction are Peter Jenniskens and Jérémie Vaubaillon. Jenniskens is guessing ~200 zhr; Vaubaillon is being more conservative: "For the level, I personnally think that ZHR~100 will be reached AT BEST, but some colleagues are more optimistic, so, suspense, suspense!!!"
The other unique characteristic of this shower is that it is the only long-period comet that will produce a significant shower in the next fifty years. The Persieds had a white color to the streamer. In the 1994 alf Aur outburst, observers reported green and blue colors. Although the reason for the color is unknown, it may be related to the primordial nature of the surface of the long period comet.
- Kurt
Some other alf Aur resources:
Aurigid Mac Mission Shower highlights page (Peter Jenniskens
page) (radiant maps)
http://aurigid.seti.org/#report
IMO alpha Aur Live Meteor page
http://www.imo.net/live/alpha-aurigids2007/
Jérémie Vaubaillon's prediction article
http://leonid.arc.nasa.gov/EOS.pdf
Vaubaillon's site on alf Aur
http://www.imcce.fr/page.php?nav=en/ephemerides/phenomenes/meteor/DATABASE/…
IMO Shower Calendar
http://www.imo.net/calendar/2007
IMO radiant data
alf-Aurigids (AUR)
Dates Aug 25 - Sep 08
Max date Sep 01
ecliptic 158°6
J2000 alpha 84°
J2000 dec +42°
v 66
r 2.6
ZHR 7
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