Good analysis Neil. I'd like to suggest factor (C)- how much overall benefit does it provide? Attaching a single cotter ring to put up the rig on an M15 doesn't take that long, so I question weather it's really worth looking for a quicker solution even if it's not riskier? Tyler Davis, CA M15 #157 "Defiant" On Sep 2, 2014, at 6:36 PM, Neil Dorf wrote:
Hi all,
just returned from some great sailing on Humboldt Bay. Will post a few pics on the trailersailor forum when I get a minute. Daniel: Sorry you couldn't bring Kestrel up to join us. I was a blast. Quick wave as I trailered down 101 past Santa Rosa today.
My 2 cents on the the pin for the forestay is this: When considering risk in general, I look at two factors:
A) How likely, on a numerical scale, is a bad outcome (pin comes out, forestay swings loose, mast comes crashing down) likely to happen? B) IF that bad outcome were to happen, how severe, on the same numerical scale, would the outcome be?
I you go with a 1-5 rating, I would put the first item at a "1" or "2", meaning not too likely under reasonable conditions; especially with the sensible precautions Judy B. suggests.
However, for (B), I would peg at a "5", meaning not too cool. Especially in rough conditions. Mast could maybe rip off the tabernacle, worse, fall upon and severly injure skipper or crew. (B) alone--no matter how low you rate (A), is sufficient for me to forego any thoughts of deviating from the clevis pin and split ring approach.
Just sayin'
By the way, and not to veer too far from the subject, but not having a permanently mounted transom / swim ladder, in my estimation, would have similar A/B ratings. Actually maybe (A) would be three, depending upon how "flat" (or not) you like to sail.
If I forgot to put up my vang, maybe I would be very likely to regret it and have to deal with more twist than I would prefer. (a 4 or 5) but the severity, except for maybe racing, would be "1" (probably not going to capsize, crash, or anyone get injured due to not having it rigged).
Don't take risks when the stakes applicable to safety are high.
fair winds,
Neil '85 M15 "TwoCan", Northern Cal.