Re: [math-fun] probability
My favorite probability paradox is Simpson's paradox, i.e. that something can be true of every subset but not of the whole set. A surprising real-world example is that until recently US life expectancy was going up, but that there were two groups for which it was going down: Smokers and non-smokers. The explanation is that, roughly speaking, life expectancy was only increasing because of people quitting smoking, and that all else was a net loss, presumably because improvements in medical care were more than offset by the increasing unaffordability of that care. Of course it's not really a paradox, just an example of how mathematical intuition is often wrong.
Monty Hall ? On 3/25/17, Keith F. Lynch <kfl@keithlynch.net> wrote:
My favorite probability paradox is Simpson's paradox, i.e. that something can be true of every subset but not of the whole set. A surprising real-world example is that until recently US life expectancy was going up, but that there were two groups for which it was going down: Smokers and non-smokers.
The explanation is that, roughly speaking, life expectancy was only increasing because of people quitting smoking, and that all else was a net loss, presumably because improvements in medical care were more than offset by the increasing unaffordability of that care.
Of course it's not really a paradox, just an example of how mathematical intuition is often wrong.
_______________________________________________ math-fun mailing list math-fun@mailman.xmission.com https://mailman.xmission.com/cgi-bin/mailman/listinfo/math-fun
participants (2)
-
Fred Lunnon -
Keith F. Lynch