let's play a game. each round i secretly write down either the number 1 or 2, and you guess which. if you guess correctly, you get that many points. otherwise you get 0 points that round. after 4 rounds, you win if your total is 3 or more points. otherwise i win. who is favored, you or me? a not-so-useful hint that will let you check your work: your probability of winning (when written as a fraction in lowest form) has denominator 4069. erich
Crucial question: when is each player informed of the outcome of each round? I'm pretty sure this matters. On Thu, Dec 22, 2011 at 3:48 PM, Erich Friedman <efriedma@stetson.edu>wrote:
let's play a game.
each round i secretly write down either the number 1 or 2, and you guess which.
if you guess correctly, you get that many points. otherwise you get 0 points that round.
after 4 rounds, you win if your total is 3 or more points. otherwise i win.
who is favored, you or me?
a not-so-useful hint that will let you check your work: your probability of winning (when written as a fraction in lowest form) has denominator 4069.
erich
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yes, it matters. both players know the result of each round after it is over, and before the next round begins. erich On Dec 22, 2011, at 4:06 PM, Allan Wechsler wrote:
Crucial question: when is each player informed of the outcome of each round? I'm pretty sure this matters.
On Thu, Dec 22, 2011 at 3:48 PM, Erich Friedman <efriedma@stetson.edu>wrote:
let's play a game.
each round i secretly write down either the number 1 or 2, and you guess which.
if you guess correctly, you get that many points. otherwise you get 0 points that round.
after 4 rounds, you win if your total is 3 or more points. otherwise i win.
who is favored, you or me?
a not-so-useful hint that will let you check your work: your probability of winning (when written as a fraction in lowest form) has denominator 4069.
erich
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OK, I might think about this a bit then. Sounds interesting. On Thu, Dec 22, 2011 at 5:18 PM, Erich Friedman <efriedma@stetson.edu>wrote:
yes, it matters.
both players know the result of each round after it is over, and before the next round begins.
erich
On Dec 22, 2011, at 4:06 PM, Allan Wechsler wrote:
erich
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Crucial question: when is each player informed of the outcome of each round? I'm pretty sure this matters.
On Thu, Dec 22, 2011 at 3:48 PM, Erich Friedman <efriedma@stetson.edu wrote:
let's play a game.
each round i secretly write down either the number 1 or 2, and you guess which.
if you guess correctly, you get that many points. otherwise you get 0 points that round.
after 4 rounds, you win if your total is 3 or more points. otherwise i win.
who is favored, you or me?
a not-so-useful hint that will let you check your work: your probability of winning (when written as a fraction in lowest form) has denominator
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participants (2)
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Allan Wechsler -
Erich Friedman