https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/covid-forecasts/ (This is not an endorsement.) At what point does an extrapolation become a prediction? Given that we have seen more than a month of plateau behavior in USA infection data, “prediction” that the plateau will continue is none too surprising. One way to distinguish between models above is whether or not they have non-negligible probabilities for rates to increase due to reopening. Can anyone predict if the plateau will end? If yes, in how many weeks or months? If no... —Brad