[math-fun] Probabilistic harmonic series
I think this is an old problem, almost certainly solved, but I don't think I've ever seen the solution: Given the harmonic series but with an independently chosen random sign in front of each term: ±1 ± 1/2 ± 1/3 ± ..., then a. what is the probability of convergence? b. when it converges, what is the probability distribution of the sum? Similarly, one could ask the same questions a. and b. about the closely related series: u_1 + u_2 / 2 + u_3 / 3 +... where each u_n is a complex number independently chosen at random from the unit circle. Anyone know the answers, or a reference? Remarks: 1. It's a bit tricky to even define rigorously what the probability in question a. means. 2. Intutitively it may seem obvious that the series, at least in the first case of ±1 ± 1/2 ± 1/3 ± ..., converges with probability 1. But it's not quite that obvious, since the "arcsine law" says that if S_k is the sum of k independent choices of ±1 at random, then as k -> oo, the most probable fraction(s) of the time that S_k is positive are 0 and 1 -- rather than the 1/2 that most people would guess. (Ditto, of course, for the most probable fraction(s) of the time S_k is negative.) So it's not clear that the random harmonic series isn't closer to the actual harmonic series than to the series with alternating signs. 3. These can be considered the 1- and 2-dimensional cases of a question that can be easily stated n dimensions: Let {v_k} be vectors chosen independently at random from the unit sphere in R^n, and consider the series v_1 + v_2 / 2 + v_3 / 3 + .... --Dan
On Tuesday, April 29, 2003, at 04:39 PM, asimovd@aol.com wrote:
I think this is an old problem, almost certainly solved, but I don't think I've ever seen the solution:
Given the harmonic series but with an independently chosen random sign in front of each term:
±1 ± 1/2 ± 1/3 ± ...,
then
a. what is the probability of convergence?
b. when it converges, what is the probability distribution of the sum?
I think it helps to get a conceptual picture by first think of a related series like ±1 ±1/2 ±1/2 ±1/4 ±1/4 ±1/4 ±1/4 ... If you group the equal magnitude terms together, you can apply the central limit theorem to conclude that the sum a_n (binomially distributed) is eventually close to a normal distribution with mean 0 and variance (2^n) * 2^(-2n), so standard deviation 2^(-n/2). The sequence of s_n of standard deviations is a geometric series. Therefore also the sequence n*s_n converges. Obviously, the probability is 1 that eventually, |a_n| < n * s_n, so the series converges with probability 1. This argument easily implies that the harmonic series with random signs also converges with probability 1. I would guess that distribution of the sums is kind of bumpy in some sense, being the convolution of a lot of 2-point distributions, but I haven't thought this through nor tried to plot experimental partial distributions. In any case, my inclination is to think it would be surprising to find any nice formula for it. Bill
Mensaje citado por: asimovd@aol.com:
I think this is an old problem, almost certainly solved, but I don't think I've ever seen the solution:
Given the harmonic series but with an independently chosen random sign in front of each term:
[...]
a. what is the probability of convergence? b. when it converges, what is the probability distribution of the sum?
{...}
You're right about this being an old problem, as well as the implicit "but nobody remembers the solution or where they saw it." This is all the more embarassing because I am just now teaching a complex variable course, and have just told them about gap and density theorems, including the part where randomizing signs in the geometric series almost surely creates a lacunary function which in no way will extend beyond the unit circle. References at hand aren't much help answering your specific questions; maybe a search via Google or Math Reviews or something would turn up something, but the casual look I have had hasn't turned up anything. - hvm ------------------------------------------------- Obtén tu correo en www.correo.unam.mx UNAMonos Comunicándonos
the current issue of the Amer. Math. Monthly (May 2003) has an article on Random Harmonic Series by Byron Schmuland on pp. 407-416 NJAS
the current issue of the Amer. Math. Monthly (May 2003) has an article on Random Harmonic Series by Byron Schmuland on pp. 407-416 NJAS
Available from Schmuland's home page at: http://www.stat.ualberta.ca/people/schmu/publications.html
participants (5)
-
asimovd@aol.com -
Edwin Clark -
mcintosh@servidor.unam.mx -
N. J. A. Sloane -
wpthurston@mac.com