[math-fun] cause and effect: eating more eggs ==> die from heart problems?
Consider egg consumption. Perhaps people with heart and circulatory problems get worried about cholesterol and hence reduce their egg consumption, because they are worried about the cause==>effect relation "more eggs==>heart disease." As a result of that behavior -- which is "heart disease risk==>eat fewer eggs," an opposite direction cause==>effect relation... the people with lower egg consumption, would die *more* often from heart disease... leading to exactly the wrong conclusion from any study assessing people's diets and counting up their deaths! (Or, perhaps it was the right conclusion. My point is: how can we tell?)
In particular, eggs are very good for you.
--I have two mortality studies which both find, significantly, that high egg consumption (7 or more eggs/week) causes increased mortality. This suggests optimum egg consumption is 0-6 eggs/week, but within that rather wide range, the studies I saw were unable to locate an optimum, or find clear evidence anyplace within the range was worse than any other. However, as I said, reverse-causality effects could be happening to make that more difficult. -- Warren D. Smith http://RangeVoting.org <-- add your endorsement (by clicking "endorse" as 1st step)
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Warren D Smith