Re: [math-fun] Innumeracy, regulation & education
Henry Baker <hbaker1@pipeline.com>:
I'm as upset as anyone by the financial crisis(es?) of the last several years, but I'm even more upset by the lack of mathematical sophistication of those in charge.
Although economics, feedback and chaos are related to mathematics, I think mathematical sophistication is less important than understanding the basics of the underlying situations. Most of these things have been pretty well understood for centuries under different names. In fact, out-of-context math, or any out-of-context specialized knowledge, becomes a smokescreen in many cases. I also doubt worldwide computerized trading networks involve any principles or issues much different than trading by camel caravan involved. Relativity just means finite communication speed in this case, an old familiar problem. If people are setting up fragile systems, there's something more than mere speed going on. Ways of buffering shocks are also an old problem. One thing to look at if people aren't cautious enough is whether caution is being punished by regulation, or carelessness rewarded. There is a bit of math sophistication that asks, are the spikes and dips we see more than what statistics and theory say we should expect? Is there even any news here? --Steve
On May 10, 2010, at 7:05 PM, Steve Witham wrote:
If people are setting up fragile systems, there's something more than mere speed going on. Ways of buffering shocks are also an old problem.
One thing to look at if people aren't cautious enough is whether caution is being punished by regulation, or carelessness rewarded.
We are actively removing the mechanisms for dealing with buffering and shocks in modern systems. Supply chain optimization reduces inventories. Outsourcing ties organizations more closely together. "Right Sizing" (whatever that is) optimizes for the narrow environmental niche we find ourselves in at the current moment, at the very high cost of eliminating flexibility and the ability to adapt to change or brief shocks in the system. We need to think of economic and social mechanisms to reduce the complexity of the world, and to decompose it into nearly independent modules (see "The Sciences of the Artificial," Herb Simon). States were an early example of this decomposition idea -- the modules were locally defined. Today, the notion of geographic modularity is probably toast. What replaces it?
Tom is right about supply chains becoming more fragile. The Iceland volcano has been causing major havoc in Europe on supply chains. All kinds of stuff has been shipped by air for so long that there is no backup. Apparently, many places in the UK have been unable to get fresh vegetables for some time. One of my UK friends was having trouble getting certain specialized medicines. http://www.supplychainquarterly.com/columns/scq20100419_supply_chain_vs._vol... http://www.thestate.com/2010/04/20/1251405/volcano-disrupts-bmw-supply-chain... No sushi, no Fedex/UPS, no flowers, no fresh vegetables. http://news.yahoo.com/s/time/20100421/wl_time/08599198330800 Fruit and vegetables including lettuce, grapes, spring onions and asparagus may be missing from many supermarket shelves next week and firms specialising in flying in produce from overseas are also warning of higher prices. http://www.guardian.co.uk/lifeandstyle/wordofmouth/2010/apr/19/iceland-volca... Kenya has been especially hard hit by the economic effects of the volcano, because they can't export fresh flowers & veggies. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/africaandindianocean/kenya/7612869... At 05:26 AM 5/11/2010, Tom Knight wrote: We are actively removing the mechanisms for dealing with buffering and
shocks in modern systems. Supply chain optimization reduces inventories.
participants (3)
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Henry Baker -
Steve Witham -
Tom Knight