Your buy-all-the-tickets lottery analysis tosses off "(or at least a share of it)" in parentheses. But actually, the huge media attention surrounding positive-expected-value jackpots mean that you end up much more likely to split the pot even if you do win, so the expected value *still* goes negative. That probably doesn't matter to you -- oh, woe is me, I *only* won half a billion dollars. But if you feel like winning half the jackpot is as good as winning the whole thing, then you should be playing even when the expected value is negative also! --Michael On Mon, Feb 15, 2016 at 12:32 PM, James Propp <jamespropp@gmail.com> wrote:

I've posted a draft of my essay "When Not to Expect What You're Expecting" and would appreciate comments:

https://mathenchant.wordpress.com?p=562&shareadraft=56c20a66c9fbd <https://mathenchant.wordpress.com?p=482&shareadraft=568d547f0934f>

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I plan to publish, as always, on the 17th.

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