RE: [math-fun] Sex, Lies and Government Conducted Surveys
David Gale writes: << . . . The objective of the survey is to get information on public health concerns, fertility, sexually transmitted disease, etc. However I bring it up here because it contains the most glaring examples I have yet seen of published inconsistency. It's the well worn story that males have many more "sexual partners" than females. Interested people should look at the report. For example, Tables 10 and 11 of the survey show that the median number of partners "in lifetime" for males over forty is 8 while that for females is 3.8. To immediately recognize the inconsistency imagine the same survey with but with the words sexual partners replaced by spouses. For more of the same look at Figure 6 on page 6. More inconsistency: when men and women are asked for the number of partners over the past 12 months, Tables 1 and 2, the numbers come out the same, within epsilon. . . .
I'm not entirely sure what the researchers were supposed to do -- they are merely reporting the results of their survey and attempting to interpret the inconsistencies, which to their credit they acknowledge. It is a well-known fact that people's unverifiable self-descriptions are biased toward making themselves look good (or at least better than reality), and so are prone to inconsistency. Many simple explanations are possible. One is the truism that it is often considered an indication of virility for men to have had numerous sexual partners (up to a point), whereas for women this is often frowned upon. Hence, men would have an incentive to report higher, and women lower, numbers, than actual fact. (But when only the past year is considered, the numbers are relatively small, so there may be less incentive to mis-report -- and also a clearer memory of what actually happened.) I don't get why replacing "sexual partners" with "spouses" makes any inconsistency clearer. It seems easy to believe that unmarried sexual behavior tends to be different from married. --Dan
Dan wrote
it is often considered an indication of virility for men to have had numerous sexual partners (up to a point), whereas for women this is often frowned upon.
Hence, men would have an incentive to report higher, and women lower, numbers, than actual fact.
EXACTLY. SURELY THIS IS THE RIGHT EXPLANATION. THAT IS WHY I CHOSE THE "SEX, LIES. .." TITLE, (which I cribbed from Lewontin's "Sex, Lies and Social Science")
Dan writes I don't get why replacing "sexual partners" with "spouses" makes any inconsistency clearer. It seems easy to believe that unmarried sexual behavior tends to be different from married.
If some one asserted that there were twice as many married men as married women in America most people (I hope) would say "Wait a minute." The spouse counting model is almost as obvious. Actually I'm told women more often then not outlive their husbands so in fact the survey should probably show the average (or median) woman has more spouses then the median man but surely not twice as many. It doesn't matter whether the coupling is marriage, copulation, or exchanging e-mails. If you could poll the whole world and get accurate response the only way getting a different number of pairings for the men and the women is of one member of a pair reports and the other doesn't. My main point is that it is not responsible for a highly official agency to publish statistics that they know cannot be correct. In the report's "highlights", also quoted in the NY Times, they make the statement about the median number of partners for men, 6 to 8, and women, 3.8 with no caveats. How many people will go to page 12 to find out that this is wrong?
--Dan _______________________________________________ math-fun mailing list math-fun@mailman.xmission.com http://mailman.xmission.com/cgi-bin/mailman/listinfo/math-fun
Mon, 26 Sep 2005 07:07:27 -0700 David Gale <gale@math.berkeley.edu>
Dan writes I don't get why replacing "sexual partners" with "spouses" makes any inconsistency clearer. It seems easy to believe that unmarried sexual behavior tends to be different from married.
If some one asserted that there were twice as many married men as married women in America most people (I hope) would say "Wait a minute." Not if each woman had two or more husbands... The spouse counting model is almost as obvious. Actually I'm told women more often then not outlive their husbands so in fact the survey should probably show the average (or median) woman has more spouses then the median man but surely not twice as many. It doesn't matter whether the coupling is marriage, copulation, or exchanging e-mails. If you could poll the whole world and get accurate response the only way getting a different number of pairings for the men and the women is of one member of a pair reports and the other doesn't. The sum, yes, but not the average. Even with totally accurate reporting, the average number per man could differ from the average number per woman, if there were more women in pairs than men. My main point is that it is not responsible for a highly official agency to publish statistics that they know cannot be correct. In the report's "highlights", also quoted in the NY Times, they make the statement about the median number of partners for men, 6 to 8, and women, 3.8 with no caveats. How many people will go to page 12 to find out that this is wrong?
David Gale wrote:
My main point is that it is not responsible for a highly official agency to publish statistics that they know cannot be correct.
I think you're being too harsh, David. The agency is reporting a true statistic: when you ask people how many partners they have, this is what they answer. Perhaps this differs from the truth because people lie, or because they never survey prostitutes, or because men have sex with their au paris who aren't surveyed becuase they're back in France, or because hordes of young college studs are having affairs with unconscious coeds, or with old women who die shortly thereafter, or whatever. The fact still remains that you can accurately report what people answer. I agree that journalists ought to take an active role in pointing out that these numbers can't reflect the actual number (of lifetime opposite-sex partners). But the survey authors should report it, and talk about possible explanations for the discrepancy, with reference to the classic work on the subject, as they did. --Michael Kleber -- It is very dark and after 2000. If you continue you are likely to be eaten by a bleen.
participants (4)
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dasimov@earthlink.net -
David Gale -
Michael B Greenwald -
Michael Kleber