Re: [math-fun] Financial Crisis = Mathematical Malpractise ?
I'm sorry, just...
To establish his credentials as sage of our current predicament, Taleb frequently refers to an August 2003 article in the New York Times in which he correctly predicted the quasi-governmental US insurance giant Fannie Mae had underestimated the risk of a rise in interest rates that would destroy the value of their portfolios.
That was 2003. Here's an article from 1999 making a similar prediction: http://tinyurl.com/4ulb87 "Fannie Mae Eases Credit To Aid Mortgage Lending." This is not a black swan. It's the same old predictable stuff. --Steve
Thanks very much for the pointer to this article. Actually, the Wall Street Journal complained bitterly about Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac for years & years (sorry, I don't have access to their archives), but everyone assumed that they were biased & didn't pay any attention. At 08:32 PM 10/7/2008, you wrote:
I'm sorry, just...
To establish his credentials as sage of our current predicament, Taleb frequently refers to an August 2003 article in the New York Times in which he correctly predicted the quasi-governmental US insurance giant Fannie Mae had underestimated the risk of a rise in interest rates that would destroy the value of their portfolios.
That was 2003. Here's an article from 1999 making a similar prediction:
http://tinyurl.com/4ulb87 "Fannie Mae Eases Credit To Aid Mortgage Lending."
This is not a black swan. It's the same old predictable stuff.
--Steve
participants (2)
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Henry Baker -
Steve Witham