Re: [math-fun] [CES #10484] How to find Malaysia370 missing plane.
The NY Times right now (sunday 1pm) http://graphics8.nytimes.com/newsgraphics/2014/03/15/satellite-contact-map/0... still has not managed to perform the deduction (intersecting 2 circles) I suggested. All they have deduced is the plane had to have come down somewhere within the two bent-sausage-shaped regions. In fact, we CAN deduce (subject merely to the assumption those flying the plane were not idiots) fairly exactly where on the two red circular arcs the plane was at 811pm, plus then deduce from the then-known direction of flight plus the known fuel-remaining, a small region where the plane had to have come down. Upon then finding every suitable landing strip within that small region, one can probably deduce its exact location. The NY Times still has not made that deduction. Has anybody? I hope it does not require a math PhD to tell the Great Expert Panels in the press and/or govt how to intersect two circles, but this one tried, and as far as I can tell, not a soul in the US govt or media has listened to me. But we can tell from the NYT graphic already that it did not land in Australia, and (again subject to its flyers not being idiots) therefore had to be on the more northern of the two red arcs.
Also asinine: The CNN "aviation experts" panel said plane fell 40000 feet in 1 minute which was "physically impossible" therefore radar claim of said altitude chnages had to be wrong. Even I can tell that 40000 ft/1 minute was very easily physically possible. The NY Times merely says it was "unlikely" apparently because pilots would not want to do that. This is asinine. If I were a pilot, and my intent were to kill the passengers, while myself remaining alive, then I would fly to high altitude while if possible turning off the oxygen-backup systems and cabin pressurization systems. I then would do some drastic maneuvers like rolling the plane 360 about the flight-direction axis (I happen to know a 747 is capable of such a roll -- this was tried successfully by a Boeing test pilot) and doing some drastic dives and stuff to throw them around and injure them some more in case they managed to survive hypoxia. We know that (a) the passengers were all dead or severely incapacitated, or (b) that the plane crashed well before reaching land, because otherwise a passenger would have contacted somebody by cell phone. Those are the only two possibilities. Given that, and again subject to my assumption those taking the plane were not idiots, we conclude they had to be dead. It is unfortunate the media "experts panels" are not capable of logic. A crucial question for confirming that theory was HOW LONG plane was at high altitude above 40000 feet. Media has not told me this crucial info, apparently considering it unimportant and presumed wrong due to their faulty logic.
Also, I would intersect the two circles and perform the calculation myself, EXCEPT that the media refuses to say AT WHAT TIME the Malaysian radar last spotted the plane, info we need, to know the second circle. (If anybody knows this info, say so.) -- Warren D. Smith http://RangeVoting.org <-- add your endorsement (by clicking "endorse" as 1st step)
On 3/16/2014 10:34 AM, Warren D Smith wrote:
Also, I would intersect the two circles and perform the calculation myself, EXCEPT that the media refuses to say AT WHAT TIME the Malaysian radar last spotted the plane, info we need, to know the second circle. (If anybody knows this info, say so.)
The last contact via military radar is reported as 1h 34m after takeoff. The last satellite contact was 7.5h after takeoff. The sausage shaped estimated areas are apparently based on the plane flying another hour after last satellite contact, but allowing for a wide range of speed between the last radar contract and the last satellite contact. Brent
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