The other day Keith Lynch was saying that COVID-19 has been a good reminder to the public about exponential functions, and I agree. The next test is whether or not the public can understand what we could loosely call "logistic peaks". These are even more simple than the output of the COVID calculator mentioned earlier. For example: [1] https://demonstrations.wolfram.com/SIREpidemicDynamics/ [2] https://demonstrations.wolfram.com/ReducingFatalitiesFromCoronavirusEpidemic... The second, latest effort [2] is a rehash of [1], and both of them have unnecessary parameters, as does mathworld: [3] https://mathworld.wolfram.com/Kermack-McKendrickModel.html Change variabless by dividing both S & I by beta, and this reduces to one parameter, gamma. It is a shape parameter, where low values of gamma indicate asymmetry and relatively quick emergence. Once you understand this, the question is: how well do you think you can estimate shape and width (and possibly amplitude)? When yr "stepping, walking, cutting, flicking, jumping, chopping, walking" you just say: "I don't know what the shape will be", choose a fixed shape that looks enough like the _one_ complete data set from China, try to match the S-shape from emergence to peak on other data sets, and get something like: https://0x0.st/iSIz.png I am hoping that "Insect Pandemics" makes it through the editorial stack at Wolfram soon, so that we can get a hyperlink to another perspective on how the analysis can be done, and a reminder that other more enjoyable pandemics will be started shortly. The other question is what should you do if you were part of the March purge? I don't know, but will say that I have been enjoying the opportunity to do some more hiking and field work, see also: https://www.inaturalist.org/observations/41879763 (digged out of a dung pat and cleaned yesterday) Hooray for social distancing! "Treat me good", Brad