http://gabgoh.github.io/COVID/index.html Complete epidemic calculator, with sliders for various parameters. Model your favorite epidemic! --- If an asteroid were hurtling towards Earth, I guess I'd be playing with the orbital mechanics calculator. At 12:17 PM 3/1/2020, Henry Baker wrote:
Given the spread of the Covid-19, here's how to explain the mathematics of epidemics.
"The 'basic reproduction number' R0 is defined as the expected number of secondary cases produced by a single infection in a completely susceptible population. It is important to note that R0 is a dimensionless number and not a rate."
R0 is the largest eigenvalue of the 'next generation matrix'.
For example, R0=phi=(1+sqrt(5))/2 for Fibonacci's rabbit problem; R0='k' (neutron multiplication factor) in nuclear fission.
Thus, R0 is the *base* of the exponentials & logarithms which occur in the various solutions instead of Euler's 'e'. Clearly, an epidemic won't go 'viral' unless |R0|>1.
"Notes on R0"
James Holland Jones, Stanford University, 5/1/2007