Note that this disparate ratio was not achieved by the suggested family planning algorithm. It was done by aborting more female fetuses. Brent On 11/6/2015 12:56 PM, Henry Baker wrote:
"in 2010 [China's birth sex ratio] was 118.08 males to 100 females"
"It's estimated that by 2020, China will have 24 million more men than women of marriageable age on the mainland"
http://english.cri.cn/7146/2013/02/26/2702s750680.htm
Musical chairs, anyone?
Of course, artificially high sex ratios like this in human history are always resolved the same way: war. The young men kill one other until the problem has resolved itself.
At 11:46 AM 11/6/2015, Henry Baker wrote:
Yes, but what happens the next & succeeding generations ?
(Assuming 1:1 "traditional" marriages.)
At 11:42 AM 11/6/2015, James Propp wrote:
Has anyone in the pop math biz tackled the mathematical side of the news story about China's (now abandoned) one-child-per-family policy?
Specifically, many families adopted the family planning algorithm "Have kids till you have a son, then stop", which (under idealized assumptions) gives rise to families of average size exactly 2.
A non-mathematician friend of mine asked me at dinner last night why the expected size of a family that stops when the first son is born is 2. I began to give him an intuitive argument that doesn't involve calculation, but he ended up preferring the argument that shows that 1/2 + 2/4 + 3/8 + ... = 2 by way of summing the formulas 1/2 + 1/4 + 1/8 + ... = 1 1/4 + 1/8 + ... = 1/2 1/8 + ... = 1/4 ... to obtain 1/2 + 2/4 + 3/8 + ... = 1 + 1/2 + 1/4 + ... = 2
Is there a place where this is explained, and explained well?
Jim Propp
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