21 May
2020
21 May
'20
8:58 p.m.
pictures: https://0x0.st/i9kU.png Start with infection curve p0(t), and spawn pn(t)=R1^n*p0(t-n) from n = 0,1,...,N. When R1 approaches 1, the total of all pn(t) has a plateau rather than a peak. The slope of the Plateau depends on R1, while its duration depends on N. During the peak, R0 is not apparent. See pics above, N=20. When successive pn(t) are assigned to nodes of a graph corresponding to different geographic locations, the above calculation is a naive estimate of what a PDE would look like assuming SIR holds locally. --Brad