Hypothetical situation: On July 7, a reporter (let's call her Eileen Byrne) asks Donald Rumsfeld questions on 9 topics, in this order: 1. North Korea 2. William Perry's op-ed on striking NK 3. diplomatic efforts on NK 4. stability of Iraq 5. political pressure in U.S. for withdrawal 6. U.S. troops' morale 7. American journalists giving away state secrets 8. Iraq War is being fought at home, in the media 9. Hamdan decision On July 8, a different reporter (let's call her Monica Crowley) asks Donald Rumsfeld questions on the same 9 topics, in the same order, except with items 6 and 9 reversed. Let's assume that there are only these 9 topics to choose from. What is the probability that these "reporters" chose the order of their questions independently? (That is, either the same order, or at most one switch of two questions?) Bob Baillie