3 Feb
2016
3 Feb
'16
5:06 p.m.
On 03/02/2016 23:46, Fred Lunnon wrote:
Ahem, I digress. Now I argue that if a trial reaches reaches k distinct coupons in m > c k log k trials, where (say) c = 2, or 10, then it's a damned good bet that n = k . Anybody disagree?
With a strong enough prior favouring a larger n, you will prefer the hypothesis that you just saw very improbable results. (But you probably should never actually *have* a strong enough prior for that; if m and c are large enough, someone who thought they had such a prior would be saying "oops, I chose the wrong model", which means that in some sense their prior didn't favour large n so strongly after all.) -- g