I was going to say a similar thing: although I agree with Warren's conclusion, I don't think the data is adequate to support it. Charles Greathouse Analyst/Programmer Case Western Reserve University On Thu, Jan 2, 2014 at 4:09 PM, Mike Speciner <ms@alum.mit.edu> wrote:
You seem to be missing a crucial piece of data, namely the change in consumption over time. The data you present could easily be explained by differences in geography, culture, and infrastructure between the US and other countries.
--ms
On 2014-01-02 15:04, Warren D Smith wrote:
ES: Taxes won't reduce CO2 emissions, just raise the cost of energy.
--WDS: cross country comparisons refute you. ES: Citation please.
--well, as of Dec 2013, here are gasoline prices including taxes in various countries: http://www.eia.gov/countries/prices/gasolinewithtax.cfm http://www.kiplinger.com/article/cars/T009-C000-S001- gas-prices-around-the-world.html
US$ per gallon, Nov 1996: Belg Fran Germ Ital Neth .UK. USA 3.95 3.93 4.07 3.89 4.32 3.20 1.27
US$ per gallon, Dec 2013: Belg Fran Germ Ital Neth .UK. USA Cana Turk 7.86 7.79 8.05 9.00 8.78 8.08 3.61 5.56 9.96
Saud Astl Chin Japa Braz Vene 0.61 5.41 4.54 6.62 5.98 0.08
Now compare with "Road sector gasoline fuel consumption per capita (kg of oil equivalent)" from http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/IS.ROD.SGAS.PC 2009-2013: Belg Fran Germ Ital Neth .UK. USA Cana Turk 111 113 223 160 239 241 1108 901 28
Saud Astl Chin Japa Braz Vene 651 592 50 336 86 410
and Motor Vehicle count per 1000 people http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/IS.VEH.NVEH.P3 2009-2013 Belg Fran Germ Ital Neth .UK. USA Cana Turk 559 580 572 679 527 519 797 607 155
Saud Astl Chin Japa Braz Vene .??. 695 58 591 .??. .??.
What do we conclude from this comparison? Well, really, you want data over a 50-year span since it takes around 50 years for economies to readjust to energy prices. The USA should have had high carbon taxes for 50+ years, if only we'd had a brain. I think most of the Euro countries have had high taxes on this for that timespan, while the USA has had near zero by contrast. USA and European economies and pop.densities similar, so you can compare to see what effect that pricing had.
Prices: USA lowest except for Saudi Arabia & Venezuela (where govt subsidizes, basically a negative tax). Turkey highest. Europe over 2X of USA prices. Canada, Japan & China: intermediate between Europe & USA.
Consumption: USA highest. Turkey lowest.
Motor vehicles: the high price countries consume less per vehicle and if economies comparable also have fewer vehicles.
I haven't tried to be very careful about this, but it looks to me like if you make taxes doubling the price of gasoline, and give 50 years to adjust, then it is reasonably safe to say consumption will reduce to one-third or maybe even less.
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