On 3/16/2014 5:26 PM, Warren D Smith wrote:
Bernie Cosell: They mentioned that arc and pointed out that it was unlikely to be on that arc because it is almost completely covered by military radars. The idea that the plane could fly over Sri Lanka, India and Pakistan [not to mention the other nearby countries] without being detected is considered pretty unlikely.
WDS: what bullshit. First of all, India stated their military radar is often turned off. Second, Pakistan let tons of USA drones fly over and bomb the place and was evidently unable or unwilling to stop them, which if they had working radar and fighter planes, would have been easy. I deduce the claim Pakistani military radar would have detected and/or stopped it, is garbage. Third, my pictured/deduced route did not go anywhere near Sri Lanka and mainly went over Bangledesh and Nepal, areas which I presume are among the least military-radared in all Asia. Fourth, we know for a fact that Malaysian military radar's detection of it was simply ignored. Don't believe the self-serving propaganda.
Fifth, the alternative if you did believe that propaganda, would be to assume the plane simply flew round in circles over the ocean for about 6 hours, thus staying off all radars, then finally intersected the sat-ping circular arcs, then soon after crashed, with nobody noticing! Why would anybody who went to this degree of planning and with this amount of ability/knowledge, do anything that idiotic?
I agree with Warren about the effectiveness of military radar coverage. But I would take the alternative to be that the plane flew to the southern intersection point, ran out of fuel, and crashed into the sea off the west coast of Australia. Why would someone do that? Because they were suicidal. Suicidal people done strange things before. There as an A-10 pilot who announced his intent and then flew another hour before crashing his plane deliberately. I do think the northern intersection is more likely though because hijacking for political or economic gain are much more common that suicidal reasons. What are the politics like in Kyrgystan? Is it a place from which you could negotiate hostage ransoms? Brent
But hey, feel free to choose that alternative.
What you, and certainly the media, do not seem to comprehend at all when assessing "unlikely" is the concept of CONDITIONAL probability. Conditioned on the facts, my hypothesis is not "unlikely." It is "the most probable explanation."