25 Mar
2017
25 Mar
'17
6:41 p.m.
My favorite probability paradox is intransitive dice. In one of its simplest forms, three 6-sided dice A, B, C with A beating B, B beating C, and C beating A — each more than half the time. E.g., A: 2, 2, 4, 4, 9, 9 B: 1, 1, 6, 6, 8, 8 C: 3, 3, 5, 5, 7, 7. where the common probability of A>B, or of B>C, or of C>A, is 5/9. —Dan
From: Cris Moore <moore@santafe.edu>
Is there a good source for intro-level probability “paradoxes” that would give me an opportunity to pit cognitive biases against mathematical level-headedness? I have in mind things suitable for e.g. 6th-graders, things like: “I flip 8 coins. Which is more likely, that they come up HTTHHTTT or HHHHHHHH?”