Hi, On 5/11/19 4:08 , Bernie Cosell wrote:
On 11 May 2019 at 8:25, Andres Valloud wrote:
How could the charges be structured so that the jury feels the most serious charge is overreach (lowest probability of conviction), but the less serious charge (highest probability of conviction) then seems reasonable? Doesn't that give the jury a low hanging fruit sense of accomplishment in administering justice because they eliminated the charges with lowest p-values?
What you're asking is a legal question, not a mathematical one, and it depends on the way a state's laws are written.
I asked whether the probability density distribution that best reflects the acquittal behavior of the jury, when seen as a function of the number of charges, was a geometric. The jurors' decisions on each charge are not independent experiments, obviously. However, does the jury revert to the mean nonetheless, for some definition of "mean of the charges"? Specifically regarding the case you referred to, I wasn't there and I have no opinion. Andres.