Crucial question: when is each player informed of the outcome of each round? I'm pretty sure this matters. On Thu, Dec 22, 2011 at 3:48 PM, Erich Friedman <efriedma@stetson.edu>wrote:
let's play a game.
each round i secretly write down either the number 1 or 2, and you guess which.
if you guess correctly, you get that many points. otherwise you get 0 points that round.
after 4 rounds, you win if your total is 3 or more points. otherwise i win.
who is favored, you or me?
a not-so-useful hint that will let you check your work: your probability of winning (when written as a fraction in lowest form) has denominator 4069.
erich
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