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Vol. 36, Issue 34 – March 28, 2016
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Asset Allocation?
Sitake Has Spring Football Winning Lottery Ticket
Ever wonder what you would do with the money if you won the Publisher’s Clearing House Sweepstakes or a mega lottery?
How would you allocate those assets that fell into your lap? Municipal Bonds? REIT’s?
Seems to me that you would want to be very prudent in your asset allocation so the windfall you inherited would give you and your family a long term rate of return.
Those were my thoughts exactly sitting in LaVell Edwards Stadium Saturday observing what was euphemistically called a spring game.
Taysom Hill wasn’t there. He was involved with a death in the family in Pocatello. He didn’t need to be at the scrimmage. He has proven what he can do as a quarterback when healthy.
Mangum Was There
Tanner Mangum was there. Let me just say this. Based on how Mangum threw the ball last year as a true freshman just a couple of months off an LDS mission and based on how he threw the ball Saturday, Taysom Hill will have to be the incarnation and amalgamation of Tom Brady-Peyton Manning-Joe Montana to have thrown the ball better than Mangum did Saturday. He was spectacular.
That said, I don’t think Mangum will be the starting quarterback for BYU in September.
It’s all about asset allocation. Kalani Sitake hit the jackpot when he was hired as the new coach of BYU. He didn’t inherit a team that was bereft of talent. Especially at quarterback.
Normally when a school hires a new coach it is because they don’t have a quarterback and haven’t had one for a few years.
In Sitake’s case, he inherited not one, but two big time signal callers. Now the new BYU coach and his staff have to figure out how they are going to allocate their inherited assets at quarterback.
How are they going to make their bonus money last the longest? Hill is a valuable option whose expiration date is just a few months away. He is the choice to play while this staff can and get maximum production and efficiency out of him. Even if he isn’t as productive as Mangum as a passer.
Plus, with Mangum still an option, the Cougar coaches have hedged their investment in case Hill has another dramatic market downturn or injury.
Mangum is the new “Cash is King” in this new Sitake market. He is the safety net for the windfall that Sitake and staff are trying to invest and protect.
A bad game or another bad break of a bone by Hill and Mangum is all the capital needed to save the BYU football economy. But as with any investment, there is no sure fire guarantee.
With Hill as the starting quarterback, you get a proven commodity. If Mangum redshirts, you have the ultimate money market reservoir. If Mangum redshirts, then on paper he has three more years to play for the Cougars. I don’t see that happening.
He is too good of an NFL prospect to spend another four years at BYU. Plus, he is getting married. That makes a difference. As I learned a long time ago, being married and making money are joined at the hip.
What I am saying is that ideally if Hill starts and lasts the year, BYU gets a bonus season at quarterback. If he doesn’t last, they then have a backup ready to go who is just as good if not better, than Hill.
On paper, this looks like the perfect investment strategy. Play Hill, redshirt Mangum and then get three more years out of him. In my money management scheme, I just don’t see Mangum ever playing a senior season at BYU. He is too good and will be too old to let his NFL dreams die of geriatrics.
Tutorials
If you want a good tutorial on the NFL draft works and how and who becomes eligible, I suggest you click here. If you want a good tutorial on transitioning from being single to being married, I suggest you click your heels together three times and think to yourself, there’s no place like home.
Sitake is in a sweet spot. He finds himself in the same situation as Jay Leno is when it comes to cars. Do I drive the Aston Martin One-77 or the Ferrari F60 America? Do I play Hill or Mangum?
Regardless of what Sitake and Ty Detmer do at quarterback, here is a little asset allocation advice for you. Spend some money on season football tickets and make sure you get your name down for yearly renews. It looks like it will be one of your best investments that will start paying dividends immediately and continue for a long time.
If I had an Aston Martin or Ferrari (Hill or Mangum), I wouldn’t be parking them on the street. I would want them protected.
Ditto for Hill and Mangum. They need protection from their offensive line regardless of how talented both are. So here’s a little investment tip. Buy Tejan Koroma stock. It looks like he will more than likely be back on the roster by fall.
He hasn’t been in school since January and spent six weeks in Arizona working out with Devon Blackmon and D’Andre Wesley and a trainer friend. He also spent time rehabbing some academic issues. My understanding is that he needs to take and pass three classes and seems to be on track to do just that.
According to a source, Koroma has ignored overtures from other programs and is extremely anxious to be back in school generally and at BYU specifically. According to this source, Koroma will be back, or will die trying.
If that is true, that will be like money in the bank for Hill and Mangum and BYU fans who have been worrying about the offensive line for this fall.
Stock Picks
One more stock tip. I don’t own any shares (Class A or class B) of Berkshire Hathaway stock. Click here for a recent price quote. I am willing to bet, however, that BYU is the only college football team in America who will have a player on its roster who does own Berkshire Hathaway. That has nothing to do with spring football, but does kind of relate to cashing in on the lottery and asset allocation. And no, I am not revealing who that player is.
I will reveal, however, my spring football stock picks.
Quarterbacks: Buy, buy, buy. This is as blue chip as it gets. On any dip buy and hold.
Running Backs: You buy this for a solid dividend, not for growth. Lots of hype in this one but the fundamentals don’t support any big upside move.
Wide Receivers: A good utilities stock. Functional and safe, but never going to be a big winner.
Tight End: The Josh Weeks headlines didn’t help this stock, but as in most trading, the headline is worse than the actual facts and fundamentals. Stay tuned.
Offensive Line: Technically speaking, this stock is in a consolidation phase. Looking for a nice head and shoulders bottom, but would settle for more of a mean and nasty base with which to build a portfolio of protection.
Defensive Line: Not too far away from being a takeover candidate…as in taking over the line of scrimmage.
Linebackers: Has met resistance the last few seasons, but looks poised for a breakout move to the upside with more athleticism and aggressiveness to build upon.
Defensive Backs: If you want to take a flyer on a speculative stock, this is the one. A few key asset allocations by the Sitake board of directors in moving personnel around from different positions and sides of the line of scrimmage, may actually result in a huge upside move. Don’t mortgage the house on an upside move, but would use my lunch money to put something down on this as a nice speculative move.
Coaches: As an IPO (initial Public offering), this stock has gone almost parabolic, especially in public relations and public perception. The big numbers of fans who went to the spring game was indicative of this.
Now comes the hard part. Can the hype and actual win/loss record meet somewhere in the middle? Charisma and charm is great, but eventually it all comes down to winning games. For me, with the schedule BYU has lined up this fall, I will be satisfied with a 8-5 result…as long as one of those 8 wins is against Utah in Salt Lake City. The other win that would be extremely satisfying is a victory over Michigan State in East Lansing.
That happens to be where my wife and I will be living in actual student housing in October. If the Cougars beat the Spartans, I promise to take off my missionary badge and even my white shirt and tie and parade up and down Hagadorn Road and around the LDS Institute building with a big BYU painted on my chest. On second thought “promise” might be a pledge to which I can’t live up. But I would relish the win as a great “missionary moment” for me and my wife. We leave for Michigan in May 9.
BYU and the Alternative Prom
In case you missed it, BYU wasn’t invited to the Prom (NCAA tournament) this year, but is having a good time at the alternative Prom (NIT). That is where the dresses and teams are more modest and the music is less loud but still has a danceable beat to it.
Fun is fun, wherever and in whatever form you find it. Fun is in New York City for the Cougars this week as they are one of four teams to make it to the finals of the NIT held at Madison Square Garden.
This is a feel good moment for Dave Rose and his team and their fans. It is not a relevant moment, however. If there was real relevance associated to the NIT, you should be able to tell me instantly, who the NIT champion was last year.
Here’s a hint. Think arboretum. As in trees. As in Stanford, a team BYU beat in Provo early in the 2014-15 season in Provo. Yes, that Stanford, a team that just fired their coach last week despite being the NIT champions one year ago.
Win or lose, Dave Rose’s job is not in jeopardy. He has a lot of lumber returning to his roster from the mission field, a redshirt roster and recent high school recruiting. He also has a lot of players who logged (a lumber reference) big minutes this season who are expected to do great things next season.
That is more relevant than the NIT.
But it is the NIT, so let’s talk about it. It is relevant enough that ESPN will be broadcasting the games nationally. That includes BYU matchup with Valparaiso on Tuesday. Tip off for that game is set for 5 pm MDT and as mentioned, will be seen live on ESPN.
A win over the Crusaders and BYU will head to the Championship game on Thursday. BYU would face the winner of either San Diego State or George Washington in the other semi-final game.
Valpo is good enough and has a good enough coach to beat BYU handily. The Cougars will have to do what they do when they win. They need to shoot the ball from outside with consistency.
Bryce Drew, the current Valparaiso coach, is good enough to be sought after by other schools, like Pitt, that have openings for a head basketball coach. The Crusaders finished the regular season with a 26-6 record and a 16-2 conference mark in the Horizon league.
They are good enough to be listed as a 1 ½ point favorite over the Cougars. BYU is good enough to cover that spread, but I don’t expect them to do so.
This should be the last hurrah for BYU basketball for this season…unless they can shoot it from distance at a 40 percent clip or better. Here’s hoping for better and one more game on Thursday. If hope doesn’t work out, there is always the decade long hope that with all the Lone Peak players finally together again, BYU is on the cusp of their first national title. I would settle for their first WCC title and work up from there.
Television Timetable
BYU vs. Portland (Baseball)
Thursday, March 31 at Portland
First Pitch: 7 pm MDT
TV: none
Radio: ESPN 960 - Provo
BYU vs. Portland (Baseball)
Friday, April 1 at Portland
First Pitch: 7 pm MDT
TV: none
Radio: ESPN 960 - Provo
BYU vs. Portland (Baseball)
Saturday, April 2 at Portland
First Pitch: Noon MDT
TV: none
Radio: ESPN 960 - Provo