HB Arnett’s
COUGAR SPORTSLINE
801
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hbarnett@fiber.net and hbarnett@xmission.com
1391
West 800 South –
Vol. 30,
Issue 1 – August 10, 2009
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YOUR DICTIONARY, THIS COULD BE A DEFINING SEASON FOR BYU
BYU really is an
elitist institution.
If there was a
college football dictionary, the definition of a disappointing 2008 football season
would list examples of teams like San Diego State, UCLA, Michigan, Tennessee
and others who didn't win many games and fired coaches.
The dictionary
used by Cougar football fans must be much more esoteric and elite. How else do
you explain the definition of disappointing season for BYU as a 10-3 record,
bowl appearance and a final top 25 national ranking?
Any way you want
to dice your dictionary, most BYU football fans and most BYU football players
and coaches, consider last year's 10-3 performance a disappointment.
They all talk
about a bad taste in their mouths and refocusing and rebounding for the coming
season.
Bronco Mendenhall
has talked for years about having not just a good team, but a good program. If
a 10-3 record is a serious disappointment, maybe the Cougars under Mendenhall
have actually now defined themselves as a good program.
We don't need a
dictionary to define irony. It is that the perceived disappointment from last
season can turn into such excitement for the coming year when the roster is
still populated by the same players and coaches.
Summer
Syndrome
We attribute it to
what we call the "Summer Syndrome".
We love summer and
apparently so do BYU football fans.
It has been a
great off season for BYU football...on paper.
All reports have
the Cougars becoming stronger, quicker, speedier, more focused and determined.
If the Cougars
actually didn't have to play a game for a few more months, they could be
national champs by November, at least in the eyes of Cougar nation.
That excitement
and estimation of BYU football also carries over to the national media. BYU
still has enough juice with the media types to earn a top 25 preseason ranking.
The Cougars came in at No. 24 last week in the
The last seven
months have been full of excitement and enthusiasm with the promise of future
expectations.
On paper and in
the press, BYU seems to have found a way to improve its dismal defense of last
season. In the last few months, BYU has won the "Star Wars"
recruiting game with a boatload of highly touted (on paper) new recruits
already in the bag for next year.
Never has a team
looked so good. Never has so much progress been made on paper and in the press.
When you don't actually have to play, it is all good and sure to get better the
longer BYU doesn't have to actually take the field against another team.
Shred
the Paper
Come September, it
will be time to shred the paper and actually see if BYU is really as good as
Cougar fans think they will be.
In our opinion, if
Bronco Mendenhall and his troops can duplicate the 10-3 record of last season,
they really will be good, not only on paper, but on the field.
A 10-3 mark this
year would mean much more than the 10-3 result of a year ago.
That is because
the Cougars will spot the national and MWC field one full lap in the race for
national recognition and respect.
Count on BYU
getting whipped by
The loss won't be
good, but the timing of the loss couldn't be better.
Assuming that BYU
doesn't get toasted by 40 or more points by the Sooners and assuming they can
win the rest of their games until they face TCU and Utah later in the year,
that opening loss to Oklahoma will be a non-factor in BYU's quest for a
legitimate national ranking.
When it comes to
national rankings, losing does have an impact, but not as big of an impact as
when you lose.
Losing early is
always more palatable than losing late in the season.
Speaking of
losing, during the last 11 years, that is what BYU has done every time they
have faced a non-conference foe that has been ranked.
The Cougars will
have two chances to break that streak this season. Actually, it will be just
one chance.
They will have to
pin their hopes on defeating
The first three
weeks of the season should be interesting.
Intoxication
The Sooners will
sober up all the preseason intoxication of BYU followers. A week later, Tulane
will reignite the enthusiasm and expectations. The Green Wave is not a good
football team.
The real litmus
test for BYU will be the next week in
That will let us
know just what kind of team the Cougars really have.
Most of the
optimism about BYU football for the coming season is based on statements from
coaches and players about how they are refocused and humbled from the bad taste
and bad finish of last season. The quotes from players and coaches have been
plentiful about how hard they have worked over the summer and how this is a
team that can be trusted.
On paper, that
sounds absolutely thrilling and exciting. Who wouldn't anxiously await watching
this BYU team play?
As good as it
sounds on paper, however, football is played on the field and is a game that is
determined by playmakers.
Even Bronco
Mendenhall, the master modeler of BYU, acknowledges that BYU didn't make enough
plays last year.
More than words,
slogans, jargon and jutting out one's chest, it has always been, is now, and
always will be, about having playmakers on your team.
Like
Our assessment of
BYU last year and this coming season is that they are a lot like
They didn't have a
defense good enough and with enough playmakers, however, to stand up to the big
boys of the nation or even their own conference.
Mizzou finished
with a 10-4 record. They won their first five games averaging 50 plus points
per game.
When it came to
facing defenses with speed and quickness, however, they folded flat, losing big
to
A prolific offense
is great, but without at least a decent defense to go along with it, you are
doomed to disappointing defeats.
Like
PRESEASON PLAYMAKER LOOK AT BYU FOR 2009
Defense
Linebackers...There aren't any. At
least, there are none that are playmakers, which is what you need at this
position to be a good defense.
When the Cougars
were above average a few years back in the early going for Bronco Mendenhall,
he had playmakers like Brady Poppinga and Bryan Kehl.
He had a very good
over-achieving middle linebacker in Cameron Jensen.
Those days are
gone.
There are no
playmaking linebackers that we can see, or at least haven't seen yet. There are
plenty of guys returning with playing experience, but no real playmakers. Seven
months of summer won't make it better, in our opinion.
The middle backer
spots will be in the lower half of the talent level of the MWC. For that to
improve, it won't come from the old guard of linebackers from last year. The
best chances for a much-needed infusion of linebackers that are playmakers will
have to come from new faces like Brandon Ogletree at middle
linebacker. Outside linebackers are in the same
predicament. No playmakers, at least that we have seen as yet. There is some
good news and bad news at this spot, however. The bad news is that BYU has
pinned its hopes for improvements at the outside backer positions by shuffling
players from other positions.
Jordan Pendleton
has never played a down at outside linebacker, and after seven months, and on
paper, he is the great hope for BYU fans.
The fact that
Cougar coaches have moved Richard Wilson, a new incoming freshman, from tight
end/wide receiver to outside linebacker, tells us just how desperate the search
is to find playmakers at the linebacker spot.
That is the bad
news. The good news is that both Pendleton and Wilson are big-time athletes,
who have been playmakers wherever they played in high school.
That at least
should give a little hope for the future.
Defensive Line…This group is
serviceable, but not spectacular. There are no NFL prospects in this group and haven't
been any NFL caliber defensive linemen for several years. From our vantage
point, there won't be any in the next few seasons either.
It is what it is.
For whatever reasons, BYU has been unable to sign the big time LDS Polynesian
defensive tackle. Until that trend turns around, serviceable, but not
spectacular, seems to be the appropriate description of this component of the
BYU defense.
BYU has nobody up
front that is as disruptive as TCU's Jerry Hughes will be and as Paul Kruger of
There is nobody on
the BYU defensive line that will demand a double team.
Russell Tialavea
has postponed his LDS mission call until late December. That means the Cougars
will return all three defensive line starters from last season (Tialavea, Jan
Jorgensen and Brett Denney), but if they weren't playmakers last year, the
chances of them becoming playmakers this year seems slim.
The only new
bodies on this unit are those who have been shuffled up from linebackers. That
would include Vic So'oto and Jadon Wagner.
Defensive Back…This is the only
place defensively for the Cougars where there is sure to be improvement this
coming season. It couldn't be worse, could it?
The Cougars were
undermanned at safety last season and it showed.
Scott Johnson and
Andrew Rich should be better.
BYU had no corners
last year. They are hoping that the pasta approach to recruiting corners will
work.
Bronco Mendenhall
finally figured out what LaVell Edwards knew for years. You always need to
recruit 2 or 3 juco corners and then throw them on the wall and hope one
sticks.
Brandon Howard,
last year's starter at field corner, is not coming back for his senior season
because of personal reasons.
BYU has
brought in three juco corners to try and find one that can cover. They are Lee
Aguirre, Corby Eason and Brian Logan. Throw in redshirt freshman Garett
Nicholson and returned missionary Robbie Buckner and maybe one can be a
playmaker.
Bottom Line…If you weren't a
playmaker as a sophomore or junior, it is highly unlikely that you will be one
as a senior.
There were no
consistent playmakers on the BYU defense last year. Those same non-playmaking
players are not likely to suddenly become such.
If BYU is going to
be improved defensively, they will have to find playmakers from personnel that
for whatever reason, never saw the field last season.
Any improvement
won't come from players that saw action last year. The best hopes, in our
opinion, will have to rest with newcomers, especially at linebacker and at
corner.
Offense
Finding playmakers
on this side of the ball is not hard to do.
Unlike the defensive side
of the ball, BYU had plenty of playmakers on offense last season and almost all
of them return for another year.
Quarterback…It starts with Max Hall,
but it won't end with him. Last season, if Hall had gone down with injury, it
was over for BYU. This year there is now a serious playmaking backup in Riley
Nelson.
The quarterback
situation never looked so good for the Cougars. There two good ones in hand and
with Jake Heaps in the bush, things look rosy.
We know that Heaps
plans on enrolling next January and competing against Nelson during next spring
for the starting spot.
If he does win
that job, it means he is the amalgamation of John Elway, Brett Favre and Joe
Montana all rolled into one.
Nelson is very,
very good. If Heaps beats him out, he must be very, very special.
Running Back…Harvey Unga has
been making big plays for the past two seasons. We see no reason why that will stop
now. The only question is if he can take the beating he had to suffer last
season.
That will require
some help from the rest of the running back corp.
There is still
hope that Manase Tonga will be back from academic exile. That should be known
later this week.
After Unga, BYU
has a bevy of backups, but none that shows any promise of being the type of
playmaker that Unga is.
That group
includes guys like J.J. DiLuigi, Malosi Te'o and Mike Hague.
Receivers…BYU had two of the
best playmakers last season at receiver. That would be Austin Collie and Dennis
Pitta. Collie has gone to the Colts of the NFL, but Pitta is back and will be
productive and consistent. He can make plays.
McKay Jacobson
showed glimpse of his playmaking abilities as a true freshman and is now back
from an LDS mission to
O'Neill Chambers
may be the guy to prove us wrong about playmakers. He certainly wasn't one last
year as a true freshman, but we do expect him to be one this season.
BYU also has a
nice incoming crop of big freshmen receivers, They include Brett Thompson, Cody
Hoffman and Mitch Mathews. We expect at least one to show he can make plays
before this season concludes.
Offensive Line…You don't
associate offensive linemen as being playmakers, but without them, it will be
hard for Hall, Pitta, Unga et al to show their playmaking wares.
Matt Reynolds is
the next NFL hope as an offensive lineman. He was good as a freshman, and
should do nothing but get better.
The Cougars are
replacing four starters from this group, but they have at least three players
besides Reynolds who have starting experience at BYU.
That would be R.J.
Willing, Ryan Freeman and Terence Brown. Both Brown and Freeman started games
as true freshmen before leaving for LDS missions.
Coaches, Team Speed and Counting Wins…One
change we will see in coaching this year is that Bronco Mendenhall has finally
decided to relinquish his defensive play calling duties. We don't see that
making any difference at all on the defensive side of the ball.
Where it should
help is on the offensive side of things.
Mendenhall can now
actually manage the game and not just his defense.
With him less
engaged on defense, he can now see what is happening in the total flow of the
game.
There are times
when a head coach has to get on the headsets and ask his assistant coaches,
"What the heck are you doing?"
Last year against
Utah when BYU refused to run the ball would have been the perfect moment for
Mendenhall to have been more engaged in managing the game instead of just his
defense.
More involvement
in game management by Mendenhall is a good move for the fifth-year coach.
This summer there
has been lots of talk of BYU working on increasing their team speed.
We don't buy
it. We don't doubt that there was plenty of emphasis and work on increasing
speed, we just don't think it will actually show on the field.
On defense, with
Brandon Howard, the fastest player on the team last year, leaving school, it
isn't likely that the Cougars will be faster on that side of the ball.
All of BYU's
losses last year came against teams that clearly had BYU outclassed in team
speed. That would be TCU,
Lack of team
speed, in our opinion, will still be an issue this year. That should especially
be evident in the opener against
When it comes to
speed,
That bodes well
for the Cougars this season because, other than
That would be
We like the
Cougars in all three contests.
We don't see the
Cougars running the table in MWC action, however. They should lose somewhere on
the road in league play.
Our assessment is
that BYU has enough offensive firepower to get 9-10 wins this season. If some
playmakers on defense magically appear, 10-11 wins is not an unreasonable hope.
Just like