HB Arnett's 801 372 - 0819 <mailto:hbarnett@fiber.net> hbarnett@fiber.net 1391 West 800 South - Orem, Utah 84058 Vol. 35, Issue 39 - June 10, 2015 Click Here To Order or Renew Your Subscriptions <http://cougarclicks.com/product/Order-Cougar-Sportsline?ID=3173> Overbought and Oversold As an old stock broker (Merrill Lynch, decades ago) I still dabble on and off in the markets (stocks, options, commodities and the occasional stakes race and Triple Crown in horse racing). I am currently back in my dabble mode. I like to use over bought and over sold charts to facilitate some short term trades. It helps me know if I want to buy, sell or hold a stock. Above is a short term trading oscillator that helps with identifying if a stock is overbought or oversold. As they also used to say decades ago with my former hair product, Brylcreem, "A Little Dab'll Do Ya!" So here's my little dab of June buy, sell, hold, overbought and oversold market advice when it comes to BYU Sports and some specific BYU Sports names. BYU Football..Buy, Buy, Buy! This is a stock that has been in a bear market for the last three seasons. It is definitively oversold and ready for a nice bounce back. The CEO has made some sketchy decisions in the past, but if his top product, Taysom Hill, can replicate his past market performances, this stock will outperform all current 8-5 projections by most analysts for the coming season. The buy point here is Sunday, September 6. If the Cougars can breakout with a win against Nebraska the previous day, this stock could go parabolic. Taysom Hill.His chart is an ascending triangle just waiting for an upside breakout. If he can get through September against Nebraska, Boise State, UCLA and Michigan with his market fundamentals (legs, arm and concussion free) still strong, this guy is a definite buy and hold for the Heisman. Kari Vanderbilt.I have downgraded Vanderbilt, the 6-2, 200 pound potential corner for BYU, from a hold to outright sell. BYU was hoping to have Vanderbilt in camp this fall after completing some juco academic work. He signed with the Cal Bears last week. Frank Jackson.Overbought in a big way. The hype and chart on this kid is straight up. That screams overbought and due for a pull back. This LDS basketball prospect is super talented and being recruited by all the biggies. He is not a sell, but a hold - out hope that BYU can somehow get back in the picture. It is now interesting that some web sites that follow the big boy basketball teams are now saying that they are hearing that Jackson may not go on an LDS mission right out of high school. I have not heard that and still rate him as strong buy on going. He has all the fundamentals to outperform the market at the NCAA level, but his market performance in recruiting hype has gone cultish and straight up. BYU Basketball.This is a nice regional company that has a strong trading record, but has yet to attract the big money and interest from the hedge funds and hype machines of the national college basketball scene. Dismal and disappointing post seasons in NCAA tournaments don't play well on the charts. Three point shooting can only take you so far in the market. There might be hope that this stock can improve dramatically with some recent acquisitions and mergers. Talking Kyle Davis from Utah State and Jamal Aytes from UNLV. Until BYU can merge their helter-skelter offense with some hell on wheels defense and an occasional post presence, this stock is still a hold, but will underperform in the market for the short term. We have a strong buy on this stock when it gets all of its products back on the market and home from missions, but that projection is now going on 3 years. If there isn't dramatic improvement soon, this may not only be a sell, but a great short sale opportunity. Shaquille Walker..I know a red hot stock when I see one. This is a buy, buy, buy and then buy some more. Walker is one of several BYU track athletes representing the Cougars at the NCAA Meet this week. He has the best chance at bringing home some hardware. In track at BYU and nationally, he is what Jimmer Fredette was three years ago and Taysom Hill was last season before getting injured against Utah State four games in. This kid can run, has a magnetic and dynamite personality and the LDS Church is getting gobs of good PR because of him. If you are still in the dark about just who Walker is, click here for some good videos and information. Walker 1 <https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0xH6pqL914w> - Walker 2 <http://www.deseretnews.com/article/865621680/BYU-star-Shaquille-Walker-is-a -secret-no-more.html?pg=all> -Walker 3 <http://www.ksl.com/?nid=272&sid=34989045> . Tanner Mangum.I bought this stock six years ago when Mangum was tossing footballs first at Timberline and then Eagle High Schools in Boise. I have been accumulating this stock in my portfolio for some time now during a gray shirt, redshirt and while Mangum was delisted from the NASDAQ national scene for two years while he served a two-year LDS mission in Antofagasta Chile. He is back and I expect this stock to take off beginning this fall. I expect to see immediate returns from this stock because there will be an immediate BYU secondary IPO on Mangum's stock this fall when he takes his spot as Taysom Hill's backup. He may have spent time in "Fagasta" but he certainly isn't "Fagotten" by this buyer of blue chips. I've only had one "load up the boat" buying moment in my market career. I'm thinking this may be the second mortgage the house and farm market moment. Then again, here is an always true market caveat. The last time I heard anybody talking so glowingly about a quarterback without a down of action under his belt was when Beano Cook of ESPN bravely predicted that Ron Powlus would win 3 Heisman Trophies at Notre Dame before the kid had ever played a down. Many of you may be worried because you backed up your investment trucks and loaded up tons of the Jake Heaps hype. Didn't work out. To be sure, the boat I am loading up with Mangum is a canoe. That doesn't matter because BYU needs a quality quarterback post Hill that can float their boat whether it is a canoe or a huge tanker. In my opinion, with this kid, any floatation device will work. No Pressure on Mangum, but this is a Buy, Buy and then Buy some more moment. Tyler Haws is a Hold.I've traded some stocks that are based in Ireland and they have thrived because when they made the move, they were able to take advantage of Ireland's 12.5% corporate tax rate versus what they had to pay in this country. It's a global market and it will also be for Haws. He most likely will have to pack his bags and go overseas to make a living playing basketball. He is not a buy for the NBA, but he definitely is a hold for overseas. He can make a good living over there and can also, with a strong performance, make an impression on the NBA for another look see. Kyle Dean.It's a hold. Just a couple of weeks ago Mike Littlewood was giddy about the signing of this outfielder from San Diego. He called him an impact player. Littlewoood's main concern about Dean was the MLB draft and the possibility that this kid would sign and go professional if the money was right. After 34 rounds of the MLB draft, Dean hasn't been drafted. That likely isn't because of lack of talent but because teams didn't think they could sign him if they drafted him. That's good news for BYU baseball. The bad news and the sell short rating is that only Kolton Mahoney, a right handed pitcher for the Cougars current team, has been drafted. He was taken in the 16th round by the Yankees. It's like the NFL Draft. You can pretty well tell who the top teams in college football are by the players that are drafted from that school. Same for baseball. Gavin Baxter.The Prospectus on this new BYU basketball recruit is that he is a more athletic Lee Cummard, without Cummard's three point range. Unlike Cummard, this kid can walk to school. The 6-7 4-star recruit is from Timpview High School in Provo. He was pursued heavily by Arizona State, UCLA and Utah State. He reportedly had offers from all three other schools. Here <http://www.deseretnews.com/article/865630448/BYU-basketball-New-commit-Gavi n-Baxter-talks-about-why-BYU-is-the-perfect-fit.html?pg=all> 's a nice article on Baxter explaining why he chose BYU. In other BYU basketball related news, Isaac Nielson has landed at UVU where he will continue his college basketball career and Frank Bartley IV has found a scholarship with Louisiana Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns. Bartley's dad played linebacker there years ago. BYU Football Recruiting.BYU is now ranked No. 1 in the nation in recruiting football players with the hardest names to pronounce and spell. In February Bronco signed Motekiai Langi. ... a 6'7", 410 pound unproven football player from Tonga. Langi is currently serving an LDS mission in Phoenix. Two weeks ago, he signed Manase Tu'ungafasi of Auckland, New Zealand. He also has no football playing experience. BYU competed against many schools with eclectic names in ascending to the top of this poll. For details watch this <https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gODZzSOelss> . In real recruiting, the latest commits for BYU are as follows: Solofa Funa, LB, 6-1, 216, Spanish Fork HS, UT Jaren Hall, QB, 6-0, 185, Maple Mountain HS, UT Aleva Hifo, DB, 5-10, 170, Heritage HS, CA Hirkley Latu, DB, 6-3, 200, Kahuku HS, HI Freddy Livai, DL, 6-3, 250, A.B. Miller HS, CA Skyler Southam, K, 6-0, 175, Wasatch HS, UT Darius McFarland, DL, 6-3, 250, Box Elder HS, UT Chris McGown: Oversold...This appears to be oversold by BYU. Fundamentally, McGown wants to spend more time with his family. That was the reason for his unexpected retirement as the BYU Men's Volleyball team. The fundamentals make sense and I am buying this story. Technically, the charts are a little confusing. The retirement announcement came two weeks after McGown reshuffled his coaching staff and announced the hiring of Luca Slabe, an internationally known coach and former Cougar player. Mike Wilton, the longtime coach at Hawaii, is now an assistant women's volleyball coach at Southern Utah. In addition, McGown had all world Ben Patch slated to return to the team next season. Overall, I am still a buyer of BYU men's volleyball, but still waiting to see what I bought and why. Charles West.I'm shorting this stock. This talented tailback from Coppell, Texas will be playing college football someday and somewhere. It just won't be at BYU. I am cutting my losses on this one. So is BYU. Quincy Lewis.Based on previous market experience as assistant basketball coach at UVU and Southern Utah, the charts and fundamentals don't show much. I'm neutral and on the sidelines on this one. If he delivers Frank Jackson, then Quincy Lewis will be the new RCPT <http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=RCPT> and BLUE <http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=BLUE> . Like these two bio-med stocks, this is an extremely volatile investment and not for the weak of heart. The rewards can be phenomenal, but you are betting on future earnings and signings. Based on actual fundamentals, this is not a glamour hire in my opinion, but a good one. BYU Women's Soccer..Without a doubt the most undervalued stock (by fans) in the BYU portfolio. The chart pattern is outstanding and always trending up with relative strength. Fundamentally this team has a built in advantage over other BYU sports in the fact that the LDS Church's demographics for young girls naturally produces very good women soccer players. Jennifer Rockwood, the CEO of this company, seems to have realized that years ago and the return on investment for stock holders, investors and fans will pay big dividends this season and beyond. Cougar Sportsline..BYU Hedge and hate funds have been short this stock for decades. I personally think it is still a hold.at least until I start publishing weekly again in August. Regardless of what you read about in Investor's Business Daily, I didn't die on a trip back from Japan like the CEO of American Express did. The downside of subscribing to this stock would be a stroke (mine) LDS mission call (my wife is really pushing it) and death, either yours or mine. I don't know about you but I think I'm good for at least another decade (not of publishing, but just living). The best investment advice on this one is to hold and hope we all live to see another national title in football. In the interest of full disclosure on this one, I will be 67 in July and have been doing this for 35 years. My health is good, my golf game is average and my wife is great. If she does go on a mission, I most likely will go with her.as her driver. If we do, it would be one of those 1 year deals and I would take a sabbatical from publishing for that year and then re-crank it up upon our return. You should be praying that we go because I'm sure that when we do decide to submit our papers, BYU will win a National Title in either football or basketball while we're gone.
