HB Arnett’s
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West 800 South –
Vol. 34,
Issue 10 – October 7, 2013
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BYU Wins 31-14
Should Have Consulted the Daily Racing Form
I was wrong. I picked
I have no excuse for ignoring the Racing Form, especially with one of the world’s top three sports spectacles coming up in a few weeks at Santa Anita. I’m referring to the Breeder’s Cup to be held Nov. 2-3. In case you’re wondering, the other two world’s greatest sports spectacles are the World Cup and the Olympics.
If the Daily Racing Form
had handicapped the
For those who are unfamiliar with the Daily Racing Form, each horse has a history that is published for handicappers to see and use. Several items are listed that give good clues as to how a horse will perform in his next race.
One of the most important is how the horse or team fared in their last
outing. BYU was coming off a wire to wire drubbing of
BYU’s coach, Bronco Mendenhall, according to Racing Form data, is not a front runner. Historically he starts slow with two or more losses early in the season. He then has a history of coming on late in the year and running and winning during the stretch run.
Chuckie Keeton also had a Racing Form history against the Cougars. It isn’t great. As a freshman in 2011, he was just 13-25 throwing the ball for 122 yards. He rushed for 25 yards on six carries. Last year, he was a little better, but not much. Keeton completed 22-38 passes for 202 yards. He rushed 10 times for 37 yards.
Not Secretariat Stats
In horse racing parlance, those are not Secretariat stats. Extrapolating numbers from the limited first quarter action Keeton saw last week against BYU before succumbing to a torn ACL and MCL, he was just 4-10 for 26 yards with 1 gimme touchdown due to a BYU turnover inside the 10 yard line. He also had a game opening interception by Kyle Van Noy. Keeton rushed the ball just 3 times for 17 yards.
Based on those numbers, if the game was a claiming race, BYU can claim that they owned Keeton the three times they have faced him.
Another key indicator in the Daily Racing Form is the Beyer Speed Figures. Plug in Taysom Hill into those ratings and he shows well with his ability to run the ball, but did not figure to be a factor passing the football. That will change for handicappers next week as Hill showed that he can indeed get the ball downfield and over the top of defenders.
Hill had the best day of his career in the air against
“Boxing”
There is another similarity between BYU football and horse race betting. It’s called “boxing”. In pari-mutuel wagering, a popular bet is the “Trifecta” and “Superfecta”. You have to pick the exact order of finish for the win, place and show in the Trifecta and the top 4 finishers in order for the Superfecta.. Many bettors, especially beginners, use “boxing” as an easy way to try and win this bet. It works like this. The better picks the 3-4 or more horses he or she thinks has the best chances of winning. He then “boxes” those picks. The box bet covers all possibilities of finishes for the horses selected. So, as long as horses picked by the bettor are the first horses to finish the race, the bettor wins.
In football, defenses like
It worked for
Muddy Track
Here’s one more race track reference: Fast, firm and muddy tracks. The condition of the track has a huge influence on who wins the race. Most horses like firm and fast conditions. A muddy track is usually not conductive to a horse running his best.
The BYU defense, under Bronco Mendenhall’s tutelage can’t control the weather, but they do control the track on which opposing offenses play.
Whether by scheme, position mastery, execution etc, opposing offenses find performing at their best past performance levels difficult against the Cougar defense. Say what you want about the Cougar head coach, but Mendenhall can bring the “mud” defensively for almost all the offenses he faces.
They did it again against the Aggies of Utah State in
Not So Toughest
Schedule
NEXT UP:
Remember in early August when the BYU media mob was declaring this 2013 Cougar football season the toughest ever?
Just like a not so prime cut of meat that is tough, if you pound it and beat it enough before cooking, it becomes softer and more palatable to chew. That describes this current slate of games. There are enough supposedly tough teams that BYU has faced and will yet face that have been beat often enough that “toughest schedule of all time”, really doesn’t hold much water anymore.
Even those two teams that have already beaten BYU are not tough.
On Paper
Utah State, looked good on paper early, but even with Chuckie Keeton healthy, they were just 3-2 with losses to two PAC 12 also ran’s; Utah and USC. BYU’s beating on the Aggies puts USU at 3-3 on the year.
Notre Dame is 4-2 on the year with losses to
Look for the Irish to polish their season record in the next few weeks.
They get USC, Air Force, Navy and Pitt on successive Saturdays before facing
BYU. USC is a train wreck at 3-2. They lost to
Georgia Tech is still a credible name on the national scene, but their
3-2 season record is not so credible on the field. The three victories have
been hung on Elon, Duke and
The Yellow Jackets will face the Cougars this Saturday in
That doesn’t bode well for Georgia Tech in
That is enough proof for the odds makers in
This game should be easy to figure out. Both teams primarily run the ball. Georgia Tech utilizes the option offense and BYU goes with the read option offense. Both teams have quarterbacks that can run. BYU has Taysom Hill and GT has Vad Lee. Both are threats with their feet, but the guy with the best arm and best passing production in this matchup will lead his team to victory.
I call it BYU 34 GT 24.
BYU Basketball
Starts
HOW DO YOU REPLACE BRANDON DAVIES?
Most BYU basketball fans will go through a period of hand wringing and worry wondering how Dave Rose is going to replace Brandon Davies, his best front court player from last year.
How do you replace somebody who has signed an NBA contract with the Los Angeles Clippers and was the Cougars’ only low post threat last season?
Here’s the easy answer and the answer that has Dave Rose smirking and smiling. You replace Davies with an even better sure fire NBA prospect in Eric Mika.
Yes, Mika is that good. Have you ever wondered how big name and big time schools seem to find freshmen that can play and be productive right away? You are about to find out how that feels and looks at BYU. Yes, Mika is that good. He is NBA material.
But won’t Mika need some front court help? How about Luke Worthington? He is built like Bronson Kaufusi and just as mean and nasty. The difference is that he is 3 inches taller than Kaufusi and has legitimate low post offensive moves.
When BYU basketball has their media day on Tuesday, most of the media will migrate to what they perceive as this season’s top story lines. They will focus on the BYU backcourt and how Matt Carlino and returned missionary Kyle Collinsworth will work together with only one ball.
They will rightfully focus on Tyler Haws. He has earned that attention with his play from last season and this summer. Those are nice stories and all three of those guys will be key cogs in how this coming season turns out. They just aren’t what will make or break this season.
It starts up front and it will finish with the play of Mika and
FLUFF AND STUFF
Lost in the news of Michael Alisa being gone for the remainder of the season with a groin injury is the emergence of freshman Algernon Brown as a very productive running back.
Brown has turned out to be a very good back running the ball between
the tackles. He has great lean and even when the play looks stuffed and
stymied, he manages to rack up yards. He is good enough that even with Jamaal
Williams healthy against
They are still looking for a winner on the offensive line. The effort has improved, but this unit is not yet the kind of offensive line that Taysom Hill needs to be a very good passer or BYU needs to be a consistent and good offense. That will have to come next season with the addition of new bodies and recruits.
I can’t prove it, but it is my opinion that the recruiting commitment of Jesse Wade, the outstanding point guard from Davis HS to Gonzaga last week, might have been influenced by BYU nabbing the commitment from Frank Jackson two weeks ago.
Wade will be a junior this season and
Television Timetable
BYU vs.
Georgia Tech
Saturday, Oct 12 at
Kickoff: 5:00 pm Mountain Time
TV: ESPNU
BYU vs.
Saturday, Oct 19 at
Kickoff: TBA
TV: TBA
Friday, Oct 25 at
Kickoff: 6:00 pm Mountain Time
TV: ESPN
Saturday, Nov 9 at
Kickoff: TBA
TV: TBA