HB Arnett’s
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Vol. 35, Issue 13 –October 20, 2014
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Charting the Cougars
If BYU Football was a Stock, is it a Buy or Sell?
As a former stock broker decades ago, I have lost touch with market strategies and systems for trading stocks. From what I remember, basically there were two ways to trade: Technically or Fundamentally. Here is my definition of those two methods as it pertains to BYU football.
- Technical analysis is the evaluation of football teams by means of studying wins and losses generated by season records, such as past games and how the team fared based on whether they were a favorite or underdog as classified by the professional odds makers at Las Vegas. Technical analysts do not attempt to measure a team’s intrinsic talent or the value of coaches, but instead use won-lost records and against which teams those records were accumulated to identify patterns and trends that may suggest what a team will do in the future.
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- Fundamental analysis is a method of evaluating teams by attempting to measure the intrinsic talent on a team and how they match up with competition on the field. Fundamental analysts study everything from the overall landscape of college football and the football condition and the talent on a team and the coaching or management of the team and how that management recruits and employs it talent to insure the team’s bottom line keeps customers in the seats and the program relevant.
My Technical Opinion
Judging the BYU football team technically during the Mendenhall market years, it would appear that there was good value on the initial public offering of BYU football with Bronco Mendenhall as the coach. In the early years of trading during the last 10 seasons, the stock value and technical trends were outstanding. It could be that the last few years are just a typical market correction and this stock will rebound back to its robust market status. I temper that forecast, however, based on the volume of trading this stock is generating. That trend is diminishing with less and less fans filling seats in the stadium which may indicate the product is becoming less appealing. Based on the charts, BYU football is probably a good technical buy at this point.
My Fundamental Opinion
According to my analysis, the fundamentals of this team appear to be in flux. While the CEO of this team has been constant, senior management or coaches haven’t. Some hires and promotions have not really inspired investor confidence. Sales or recruitment of players has been fairly stagnant under the current management. That sore spot has been able to be masked in the annual reports by friendly takeovers of quarterbacks, who are the primary source of income and bottom line results for this particular team. Since the new Mendenhall management team took over they reaped the benefits of good quarterback play for which their sales and recruitment force was not responsible. The best early year marks of 11-2, 11-2, 10-3 and 11-2 were all produced primary by quarterbacks that fell into this management team’s lap. John Beck was a Gary Crowton holdover and Max Hall showed up at BYU on his own. As a matter of fact, showing up on their own is also a description of how Riley Nelson and Taysom Hill became BYU quarterbacks.
BYU is a quarterback based program. You have to have good to great quarterbacks to win in Provo. That is just a historical fact. Take away the friendly inheritance of good to great quarterbacks this current management team has inherited in the last ten years, and based on the fundamentals of high school quarterback recruiting over the last ten seasons, the outlook doesn’t appear to be rosy as many would like. Of course, had Taysom Hill remained healthy, the fundamental deficiencies of a lack of quality high school quarterbacking could have been hidden for another season.
In case you haven’t been paying attention, here is a list of some of this current management team’s high school quarterback signees over the last few seasons: Jason Munns, James Lark, Alex Kuresa, Billy Green and of course Jake Heaps. The team’s bottom line is still suffering from that Heaps write off of a few years ago. It may soon reap the reward of its lone high school quarterback recruit that could turn around the winning and losing bottom line for the Cougars. I refer to the biggest offensive asset BYU has on its books in Tanner Mangum. He hasn’t been brought on line yet because he is still on an LDS mission and won’t return until next spring.
This guy can throw the ball and management knows it. The fact that BYU actually threw the ball 63 times last week in the loss to Nevada, and will have a legitimate Division I elite quarterback to take over throwing the ball beginning next year, is keeping this stock afloat in most investors and fans minds, especially mine.
Another fundamental white flag for this stock was the marketing mistake, in my opinion, of trying to sell a new product with no sustainability. I refer to the go fast, go hard marketing campaign that has yet to show any sustainable revenue stream or staying healthy stream for its quarterbacks and running backs.
This company’s value is quarterback and passing based and if it is to regain its initial market value, it has to concentrate on this fundament product. An 8-5 campaign last season and a current 4-3 mark this season under the current go fast, go hard, marketing campaign doesn’t project well for investors.
Fundamentally this stock could do with a little shakeup on the board of directors, especially those currently sitting in the defensive board room, but I am still buying this team for its future offensive revenue stream that will be produced by quarterbacks that can throw the ball down the field.
Is There Compassion in Comparison?
Bronco Mendenhall is under fire.
It hasn’t been a pleasant three weeks for the BYU head coach. There are calls for his retirement or removal as the head of the Cougar football program. Fortunately for Mendenhall, those calls are from fans and not the administrators who sign his check. It will have to get a lot worse before those guys start blinking and balking at Bronco.
The reality of this down trend in BYU football is that Bronco’s boss has seen worse and can relate and empathize with Mendenhall. In case you forgot, Tom Holmoe was the head coach at Cal. He survived five years at the Bears’ helm. During his five-year tenure at Cal, he compiled a 16-39 record, including a 9-31 record in Pac-10 play and a 1-10 season in 2001, the worst in the Golden Bears' history. Holmoe went 0-5 against archrival Stanford and failed to reach a bowl game as head coach. Holmoe resigned at the end of the 2001 season.
If you think the Cougar fan base is disgruntled and unsettled at what has unfolded this season with BYU football, you are right. With a legitimate Heisman candidate and a 4-0 record, expectations for this team were through the roof. That is when said roof collapsed.
If Bronco wants a little company in his misery, he can call Kevin Sumlin, the head coach at Texas A&M. His story and scenario this season is similar. He started the year off with a bang and big win on the road at South Carolina that produced a national ranking and quarterback that was anointed as a legitimate Heisman candidate.
Now the Aggies are an also ran and Sumlin went from a coaching genius to a coaching jerk. Unlike Mendenhall, Sumlin still has his quarterback, but like Mendenhall, he went from an undefeated 5-0 to a 3-game losing streak and is now 5-3.
The difference is that A&M’s three losses came at the hands of the SEC in Ole Miss, Mississippi State and Alabama, who hammered the Aggies 59-0. BYU’s losses were to Utah State, UCF and Nevada. Let that percolate in your Pollyanna pot before swallowing hard on that one.
And finally, Mendenhall and I have something in common. In his post-game remarks after the Nevada game to the media, he was asked about the poor play of the defense. Mendenhall’s response was, “the defensive system is phenomenal, but the execution was lacking.”
I feel the same way about my newsletter. It is a phenomenal rag, but good grammar and spelling, good writing, logical thinking, execution of good business practices and revenue are lacking.
Can’t Disguise It
BYU Bounced by Nevada 42-35
BYU’s defense can’t stop anybody. There I said it. It is out in the open along with other teams’ wide receivers.
The Cougar defense is poor and porous. It can’t keep teams out of the end zone. The good news is that it can be fixed, but when it will be fixed is still open for debate.
That will depend on Bronco Mendenhall. Since this season is already over for all intents and purposes, he may wait until next spring to make the needed changes. In my opinion, he is not going to incriminate himself this season for the dubious decision he made in relinquishing the defensive reigns to an assistant coach. If Bronco steps in full time into the defensive mess to try and correct it now, he would be admitting that he made a personnel mistake on his staff.
That means it will fall to Christian Stewart, who is still wet behind the ears offensively, to resuscitate this team.
Based on his performance against Nevada, it appears that he may be up to the task. Stewart had a great day against the Wolfpack. He passed for 408 yards and 4 touchdowns while completing 39-63 throws. Unfortunately, he was also sacked 6 times and fumbled twice. Still, the 408 yards passing was impressive.
Or was it?
We will find out just how impressive Stewart’s performance was this week against Boise State. That is because the passing yardage racked up by the senior QB against UNR should have been expected.
Nevada is ranked 123rd out of 128 FBS teams in pass defense. In Stewart’s first game against UCF, he only managed 153 yards throwing the ball. That fits with UCF’s pass defense ranking of 12th in the nation.
Boise State is currently ranked 90th in pass defense. Expect Stewart’s numbers to reflect that ranking. I am looking for something in the 300 yard range. Before the year is over, we will have a much more accurate assessment of this Cougar passing game with Stewart as the guy leading the charge.
Before leaving the subject of passing defense, if you are wondering why opposing quarterbacks all look all world against the Cougars it is reflected in BYU’s pass defense rank as the 117th worst in the country.
Mitch Mathews led all BYU receivers with 16 catches for 182 yards and two touchdowns. It was a career day for the lanky 6-6 receiver from Oregon. The Cougars also had a very nice day running the football. They rushed for 193 yards on 39 carries. It still is hard to figure out how a team that put up 601 yards of offense lost this game to a Nevada team that had just 411 yards of offense.
Let me clarify. It is hard to figure out until you factor in the BYU defense this season and then it becomes crystal clear in a hurry.
Boise State is a 6-point favorite over the Cougars. They are certainly not a dominant team as they used to be and they are beatable, even in Boise. The key to this game will be BYU’s ankles.
If they get enough players back from ankle sprains and other assorted injuries, this could be a game BYU can win. I’m putting my money on medical recoveries and calling it BYU 31 BSU 28.
TV Timetable
BYU vs.
Friday, October 24 at
Kickoff: 7:00 pm MDT
TV: ESPN or ESPN2
BYU vs. Middle Tennessee
Saturday, November 1 at Murfreesboro
Kickoff: 1:30 MST
TV: CBS Sports Network
BYE
Saturday, November 8
BYU vs. UNLV
Saturday, November 15 at Provo
Kickoff: TBA
TV: TBA