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HB Arnett’s
COUGAR SPORTSLINE
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372 0819
hbarnett@fiber.net and hbarnett@xmission.com
1391
West 800 South –
Vol. 30,
Issue 13 – November 2, 2009
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UPON
FURTHER REVIEW
Now that the dust
and disgust of BYU's beat down a week ago at the hands of TCU has settled, the
disappointment is still real, but the disillusionment is gone.
After watching a
weekend of college football, it appears to us that BYU is probably as good, and
even better, than 85 percent of the other Division I teams playing the game
these days.
The current
reality of BYU football, however, is that there appears to be a glass ceiling
for the Cougars. They are hovering just below the top 15 percent of programs
who play the game.
We also probably
should acknowledge that the TCU team that dismantled BYU is currently one of
those teams in the top 15 percent that is clearly better than the Cougars.
If BYU is ever
going to break through that glass ceiling it won't be with coaching. Blaming
coaches is basically a knee-jerk reaction and what we expressed last week after
the TCU loss.
Here is how we see
it after more thought and viewing of college football games that didn't involve
BYU.
In our opinion,
the number of great coaches who can win games with only x's and o's are
extremely rare.
If a coach really
is that good, he is never going to be coaching at BYU. He will demand such a
big salary that BYU will never be able to match it.
Reality
Here is the
reality of college football coaches in general and BYU coaches in particular,
as we see, it when it comes to the actual coaching of football. You could throw
all college head coaches and assistant coaches' names into a bag, shake it and
randomly draw out a staff and they would all look pretty similar.
If a guy is truly
brilliant, he is going to be teaching physics or mathematics at an Ivy League
university, not coaching football at BYU or any other school.
Even if there was
such a thing as a brilliant LDS super-guy who could coach the game, and as a
bonus, is a motivator and mover of mountains, the law of supply and demand
would keep him away from BYU and put him at some BCS school where he would be
making $3-4 million per year.
That is our take
on coaching and especially BYU coaching.
BYU's coaches know
their stuff, but they are nothing special. That description also applies to 99
percent of other coaches in the business when it comes to teaching,
implementing schemes, games plans and motivation.
Football coaches
and mechanics are similar. A mechanic, no matter how good he is, can't take a
Yugo and make it a Lexus.
A football coach
can't take a team of dogs and make them thoroughbreds.
Taking
Steroids
You and I could
train for years, even take steroids, hire a track coach who could teach us
technique and execution, but if we had to face Usain Bolt in the 100 meters, he
would still win. On our best day, we might be within 15 meters of him at the
finish line, but only if he was suffering from the H1N1 virus and had major
reconstructive knee surgery the day before the race.
In our opinion,
when it comes to coaches, having horses is better than having a high IQ.
All of which
brings us back to the Bronco Mendenhall stable. If he is going to continue to
win games and eventually break through the glass ceiling and big-game barrier,
he needs more horsepower, not coaching acumen.
He was left some
horses from the previous regime, but as evidenced by the last two years, those
horses are not yet good enough to run with the better bloodlines. We
acknowledge the win over
In all of the
major disappointing losses during Mendenhall's career as a head coach at BYU,
he has been out-horsed more than he has been outcoached.
Need a
Herd
If you are going
to run a ranch that is reaching for the top, you have to somehow build a herd
of horses that will get you there.
Bronco's modus
operandi for getting his herd in place is certainly different and by the nature
of the LDS missionary program involves a longer timeline than at other
programs.
He has narrowed
his recruiting pool and made such odd statements as "A player needs to
recruit me."
The true test of
what kind of Cougar coach Mendenhall is going to be is just around the corner.
Despite all the
hoopla of mindset, mantras and models, after the 2010 season next year,
Mendenhall will have only horses that he and his staff has recruited. We will
soon begin to see if his horses are going to be good enough.
There are four
players still on the team that were part of Gary Crowton's last recruiting
class. they include Nick Alletto and Terence Brown, both current starters on
the offensive line, Matt Putnam, a backup defensive end and Grant Nelson, a
backup outside linebacker.
Mendenhall's first
class in 2005 was primarily recruited by the Crowton staff of which Mendenhall
was a part. As a head coach, he had little time to put his brand on recruiting
before signing day in February.
First
Class
That first class
of Mendenhall/Crowton still has players with another year or more of
eligibility remaining. They include Matt Reynolds, starting offensive line,
Harvey Unga, starting tailback, Russell Tialavea, starting nose guard, Vic
So'oto, backup defensive end, Luke Ashworth, starting wide receiver, Shawn
Doman and Terence Hooks, linebackers, Jan Jorgensen, starting defensive end and
Stephen Covey, backup wide receiver.
Mendenhall will
very soon be riding only his own horses that he recruited and roped. In our
opinion, the bottom line is not coaching, it is recruiting. If his horses
aren't good enough, this BYU coaching staff and their unique model and mode of
management won't be in the BYU barn forever.
Most fans that we
talk to think that the last two recruiting classes of Mendenhall and his staff
have been very good. Those same fans think this incoming class that will sign
in February is phenomenal and indicative of great things ahead for BYU when it
comes to horses and high expectations.
We tend to agree
on those assessments, but differ on when the influx of better talent will
actually kick in and be seen on the field.
The reality of BYU
recruiting has taught us that despite how highly touted a BYU recruiting class
is, only two or three new high school recruits ever see the field as true
freshmen and it is a very rare exception to have a true freshman start and make
an impact.
Impact
The last true
freshman offensive recruit to start and make a difference was Austin Collie.
Harvey Unga was not
enrolled at BYU the year after he graduated from high school and saw only
limited action the following year because of a hip injury. It wasn't until the
third year after high school that he made an impact as a redshirt freshman.
No true freshman
quarterback has ever made a contribution at BYU. Not Ty Detmer, not Steve
Young, not Jim McMahon, not anybody in the last 30 years.
No true freshman
linebacker has started for BYU in the last 20 years. No true frosh has started
as a defensive back.
As highly touted
as Craig Bills was last year, he isn't starting for the Cougars this season.
Other than wide
receiver, the only other place where true freshmen make an immediate impact at
BYU is on the defensive line. Eathyn Manumaluena earned a starting spot his
freshman year a few seasons back.
What we are saying
is that as good as the new incoming class looks to be, it won't be much, if
any, immediate help for next season.
In our opinion,
the two areas that need the most help are defensive line and linebacker. The
defensive secondary is what it is. It will never be great. Great defensive
backs and BYU recruiting are not compatible. If there is going to be a good
defense for BYU, it will require good defensive linemen and linebackers.
Influx
If there is going
to be an influx of talent next season that will make BYU better on both side of
the ball, it won't be from the much anticipated, but yet to sign, 2010 class.
That will be a talented group, but history shows it won't seriously help for at
least two or three years.
That means any
help for next year will have to come from the recruiting classes of 2006, 2007
and 2008.
These guys are
already in the program, or soon will be when they all return from missions.
The 2009 class and
the much anticipated 2010 recruiting class are exciting and good for future
hope, but the reality of any real help next year will have to be found in the
three previous classes and the development of those players or the influx of
talent that has yet to see the field.
Here are those
classes.
2006
Class
Brandon Bradley, DB,
started at boundary corner this year.
Rhen Brown, WR,
redshirted this year.
Robbie Buckner, DB, was
slated to start, but was sidetracked by injury in the fall.
Sam Doman, QB/TE, no
longer in the program.
Ian Dulan, DE, serving an
LDS mission. Former starter. Won't be back untill 2011.
Mosese Foketi, DL, no
longer in program.
Ryan Freeman, OL, sees
backup action this season on o-line.
Romey Fuga, DT, starts as
a sophomore now.
Mike Hague, RB, was
backup running back, but gone for the year with injury.
Max Hall, QB, will not be
in the program next year.
Braden Hansen, OL, starts
as a redshirt freshman.
McKay Jacobson, WR,
starter at wide receiver, but currently injured.
Matt Johnson, Deep
Snapper, never enrolled.
Walter Kahaialii, OL, on
an LDS mission, due back in Jan of 2010.
James Lark, QB,
redshirted as a frosh, on LDS mission, due back Jan of 2010.
Nate Moncur, LB, was
injured and never enrolled.
Michael Moore, DB, no
longer in program.
Mike Muehlmann, TE/DE,
true frosh this season after serving mission.
Brandon Ogletree, LB, a
backup middle linebacker this season after returning from mission.
Tico Pringle, DB, no
longer in program.
Jordan Richardson, DL,
backup nose tackle. Switched to O-line for two weeks this season because of
injuries.
Andre Saulsberry, DB, no
longer in program.
Tom Sorensen, OL, no
longer in program.
Riley Stephenson, K/P,
after mission punts this season as true frosh.
Matangi
Rick Wolfley, DL, no longer
in program.
2007
Class
Famika Anae, OL, back
from mission as true frosh next season.
David Angilau, DL, no
longer in program.
Tyler Beck, LB, back from
mission next season, will be sophomore.
Braden Brown, TE/OL, see
playing time this season as backup o-lineman, te and blocking back.
J.J. Di Luigi, RB,
currently a backup running back.
Scotty Ebert, WR/DB,
never enrolled in school.
Kaneakua Friel, saw
action as blocking back, due back from mission in 2011.
Austin Jorgensen, LB, saw
special teams action as frosh, back next season from mission.
Ryan Kessman, WR, no
longer in program.
Aveni Leung Wai, LB,
still needs academic work after returning from mision. Is currently at
Grossmont JC in
Levi Mack, OL, no longer
in program.
Devin Mahina, TE/DE/LB,
will enroll next year after mission and should be part of spring drills.
Eathyn Manumaleuna, DL,
started as frosh, will be back from mission next season.
Marcus Matthews, WR,
redshirting this year after mission.
Jason Munns, QB, will be
back from mission next season.
Gary Nagy, DB, no longer
part of the program.
Jordan Pendleton, LB,
starts for the Cougars.
G Pittman, DB, no longer
part of the program.
Houston Reynolds, OL,
redshirting this year after mission, tore ACL early in the fall.
Jordan Smith, WR, back
from mission for next season.
Steven Thomas, DB,
current reserve defensive back.
Manaaki Vaitai, OL, back
from mission next season.
2008
Class
Bernard Afutiti, DL, if
he can solve academics, will be back on field for next season.
Michael Alisa, LB, back
in 2011 from mission.
Kevan Bills, LB, back in
2010 after mission, will likely redshirt next season.
Cameron Comer, DB, back
from mission in 2011.
Spencer Hadley, LB, back
from mission in 2011.
Austin Holt, TE, back in
2010 after mission, will likely redshirt next season.
Solomone Kafu, OL, back
from mission in 2011.
Jake Murphy, WR/LB, back
from mission in 2011.
Iona Pritchard, LB, back
from mission in 2011.
Daniel Sorensen, LB, back
from mission in 2011.
Justin Sorensen, K, back
from mission in 2011.
Brock Stringham, OL, back
from mission in 2011.
Michael Yeck, OL, back
from mission in 2010, will likely redshirt next season.
Atem Bol, WR, never
qualified for enrollment academically.
Jerry Bruner, RB/LB, no
longer in program. Now at
O'Neill Chambers, WR,
currently a starter.
Garett Nicholson, DB, no
longer in program.
Shiloah, Te'o, DB, no
longer in program.
Jesse Taufi, OL,
academics still a problem.
How about it? See any
major help on the horizon for next season from these classes? We do. We
mentioned that we think the two areas that need the most help are the defensive
line and linebackers.
The names that pop
out to us are Eathyn Manumaleuna and Bernard Afutiti on the defensive line.
Devin Mahina is a player and could help at defensive end, or at linebacker.
Speaking of
linebackers, Tyler Beck, Austin Jorgensen and Aveni Leung Wai, will help.
The class of 2009
will give the Cougars their starting quarterback in Riley Nelson, and a very
talented linebacker in Kyle Van Noy. He will be enrolled in January, and with a
spring practice under his belt, could be one of the true freshmen to make an
impact.
We have mentioned
before that we expect Ross Apo, the wide receiver from
FOOTBALL
FLUFF AND STUFF
BYU is back in the
top 25 after taking a week off. If the Cougars had two more byes in November,
they could be BCS bowl eligible.
The national
ranking won't last if BYU can't win in
You never know
what you will get.
We will find out
in a hurry if BYU has folded its tent after the TCU debacle.
The Cougars will
have to play well in
The Cowboys are
still not a very good team, but new coach Dave Christensen has them playing
hard and with heart.
When
We expect
This is the kind
of team that the BYU offense should light up.
We call it BYU 37
Wyoming 17.
QUARTERBACK
QUEUE
Max Hall...An avid and
good golfer, Hall may have played nine holes somewhere. If he did, he likely
scored less than the 38 TCU put up on the Cougars a week ago.
Riley Nelson...No game,
no stats.
James Lark and Jason
Munns...See recruiting class breakdowns above.
Jake Heaps...He threw
three touchdown passes, but it wasn't enough as Skyline lost 25-20 to
undefeated Bothell HS.
Tanner Mangum..Completed
19-42 for 208 yards and 3 touchdowns in a 24-27 loss to
Alex Kuresa...Kuresa
doesn't have the prototypical size or arm of a Division I quarterback, but he
certainly plays like one as a high school junior. Last week in the first round
of the state playoffs, he was 12-18 for 320 yards passing. Mountain Crest
tourted Salem Hills 55-6 and sat down early as his team was up 48-0 at the
half.
TELEVISION
TIMETABLE
BYU vs.
Trinity Western
Thu, Nov 5 at
Tipoff: 7:00 pm Mountain
Time
TV: BYUTV (live)
BYU vs.
Saturday, Nov 7 at
Kickoff: Noon Mountain
Time
TV: The Mtn
BYU vs.
Tue, Nov 10 at
Tipoff: 7:30 pm Mountain
Time
TV: BYUTV (live)
BYU vs.
Bradley
Fri, Nov 13 at
Tipoff: 7:30 pm Mountain
Time
TV: The Mtn
BYU vs.
Saturday, Nov 14 at
Kickoff: Noon Mountain
Time
TV: The Mtn
BYU vs.
Air Force
Saturday, Nov 21 at
Kickoff: 1:30 pm Mountain
Time
TV: CBS C
BYU vs.
Saturday, Nov 28 at
Kickoff: 3:00 pm Mountain
Time
TV: The Mtn and CBS C