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April 2009
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I am sending out this issue today instead of its normal time of Monday
because I won't be available then.
Thanks,
HB
HB Arnett's
COUGAR SPORTSLINE
801 372 0819
hbarnett(a)fiber.net and hbarnett@xmission <mailto:hbarnett@xmission.com> .com
PO Box 50424 Provo, Utah 84605
Vol. 29, Issue 36 - April 6, 2009
Click
<http://www.cougarstreet.com/products/index.php?type-450&PCID=450:0:0:0:0>
Here To Order Or Renew Your Subscriptions
MAX HALL IS STILL THE BIG DOG
Max Hall is not a laughing matter despite his luster among Cougar fans
becoming a little tarnished late last season.
Throwing six picks against Utah will do that sort of thing.
Here is a Max Hall joke that was making the rounds after the season ended.
Did you hear that Max Hall lost his three best receivers to early entry into
the NFL?
Yeah, Austin Collie, Paul Kruger and Sean Smith (The latter two both
picked off a Hall pass for the Utes and both are headed early to the NFL.
Hall certainly was good for a little levity, but without him as
quarterback for BYU last year, a little levity would have been a lot of
losing.
That is not funny, but true.
Without Hall last season, the Cougars are lucky to get 5 wins.
Without Hall this season, the same will hold true.
Here something else to smile about.
Hall is having a great spring.
Here are some numbers that are no joke and will get you longing for the
season to get started right away.
With three weeks in the books and several 11-on-11 drills and two serious
scrimmages, Hall's numbers are not laughable, but laudable. That lends
itself to a big fall for the senior-to-be quarterback.
Game Like
In the two most game-like scrimmages, Hall has gone 19-of-26 for 176 yards.
As has always been the case with BYU football, the Cougars will only go as
far as their quarterback will take them.
Stand-up comics are funny, but Hall has put up some
stand-up-and-take-notice numbers this spring. In other work during the
spring, he has completed 53-of-67 throws.
We don't think you will see any coaches in the MWC laughing about Hall
coming back for his senior season and neither should we as BYU fans.
COUNTING CORNERBACKS AND OTHER RECRUITS
There is a good reason that Bronco Mendenhall focuses on recruiting LDS
players. There is an even better reason why he focuses on trying to find LDS
cornerbacks and other defensive backs.
If the recruit is a defensive back and not LDS and signs with BYU out of
high school, history shows it is highly unlikely he will last at BYU.
There is normal attrition of recruits at BYU and with all football
programs, but when it comes to non-LDS recruits in general and defensive
backs, in particular, they seldom survive in Provo for long. The numbers are
even bleaker for black non-LDS recruits.
We go back ten years to look at the non-LDS high school recruits BYU has
signed in the last decade and see how they fared in the program.
1998...In this recruiting class BYU signed four high school non-LDS
recruits: Kevin Gilbride, qb; Eugene Childs, wr; Michael Westbrook, wr;
Jernaro Gilford, db; Brandon McFerron, ol.
Gilbride, Childs, McFerron and Westbrook lasted two seasons or less.
Gilford did go the distance, but he had to take an honor code hiatus before
returning to Provo to finish.
The Cougars also signed a jc defensive back, Michael Lafitte. He didn't
play much, but made it through his two years of eligibility in Provo.
1999...BYU signed Jenaro Gilford (again, because he didn't qualify
academically the year before), db; Colby Bockwoldt, lb; Kurt Elliott, db;
Devian Mims, dl; Robert Ramirez, db.
Mims and Ramirez never qualified academically and never enrolled. Only
Bockwoldt made it through 4 years of eligibility.
In the non-LDS juco ranks, BYU signed Hashi Robertson, db; Brian Gray, db;
Jonathan Pittman, wr. All three played their two years.
2000...Isaiah Joiner, a running back, was the only non-LDS high school
signee that year. He ran back a few kickoffs and also had an incident where
he ran through a mall parking lot. He was a quick exit.
On the juco scene, Danny Phillips and Derrus Wilson, both db's, didn't
contribute much, but stayed two years. Brian McDonald, rb, also played 2
years. He enrolled as non-LDS, but joined the Church and served a mission
after graduation.
2001...O'Neal Howell, db and Breyon Jones, wr signed. Both made four years.
Josh Brandon, db, a juco, played his two years.
2002...Curtis Brown, rb, Dan Coats, te, Travonne Jackson, db, Thomas
Stancil, rb signed out of high school. Brown and Coats were four year-guys
and stars. Jackson and Stancil lasted a year. Brown joined the LDS Church
while in Provo.
James Allen, db and Walt Williams, db, signed from the juco ranks. Allen
lasted a year and Williams could never qualify academically.
2003...This was a small class and no non-LDS recruits were signed.
2004...Karland Bennett, db; Antwaun Harris, wr, B.J. Mathis, rb; Michael
Reed, wr; Ibrahim Rashada, db; Billy Skinner, db; William Turner, lb. Only
Reed survived and graduated. We would tell you what happened to the others,
but Cougar fans don't want to be reminded of it.
Juco wise, BYU signed non-LDS recruits Todd Watkins, wr; Riley Weber, wr;
Eddie Scipio, db; Michael Morris, wr; Gary Lovely, lb; Greg Lovely, db,
Justin Luettgerodt, lb.
Watkins, Weber, Luttgerodt and Gary Lovely made it. Scipio never enrolled
for academic reasons.
2005...Brandon Howard was the only non-LDS high school signee. He started
last year, but is not currently in school. There is hope that he will return
in the fall.
On the juco scene BYU signed non-LDS recruits Sete Aula, ol and Justin
Robinson, db. Both were starters and played through their eligibility.
2006... BYU signed just one non-LDS recruit; a juco deep snapper, Matt
Johnson. He never enrolled.
2007...BYU signed 4 non-LDS high school recruits. They included: Brannon
Brooks, db, J.J. DiLuigi, rb; Ryan Kessman, wr and G Pittman, db.
Only DiLuigi is still here after just two years.
No non-LDS jucos were signed.
2008...Only 2 non-LDS signed. O'Neill Chambers, wr and Garett Nicholson, db.
Both present and accounted for after one season.
No jucos signed.
Stats aren't our forte, but our numbers show that BYU is retaining just 33
percent of its non-LDS high school recruits over the last decade.
When you figure the retention rate of non-LDS high school defensive backs
that have signed in the last ten years, it is only 25 percent.
By contrast, when you figure the retention rate of non-LDS juco recruits,
the retention rate of juco signees in the last decade is 81 percent.
We are sure there must be other factors, but it appears to us that BYU
would be better served by focusing more attention on the junior college
market, especially when it comes to defensive backs and non-LDS prospects.
For perspective, from what we can gather from the official press guides of
BYU football for the last ten years, there is also a pretty good turnover
rate for the bread and butter LDS recruit over the last 10 years.
Here are the counts per year. The attrition can be attributed to
scholarships being pulled, transfers, injuries, academics and other
problems, but here are the numbers.
1998...Signed 13 LDS high school recruits. Only 7 made it through 4 years of
eligibility.
1999...Signed 16 LDS high school recruits. Only 8 finished four years of
eligibility.
2000...Signed 19 LDS high school recruits. Only 5 finished the full
scholarship trip. Highest attrition rate in the last decade.
2001...Signed 9 LDS high school recruits. Only 4 survived the full four
years.
2002...Signed 12 LDS high school recruits. Only 6 made it to the end.
2003...Signed 11 LDS high school recruits. There are still 8 left with this
being the senior season for those signees.
2004...Signed 9 LDS high school recruits. Three left the program early. The
rest are still playing with the exception of Austin Collie who left for the
NFL. We aren't counting him as part of the attrition.
2005...Signed 13 LDS high school recruits, but three are long gone already.
The rest are still in the program.
2006...Signed 20 LDS high school recruits, some of which will be enrolled as
true freshmen this fall. Of the 20, 4 are already gone for good.
2007...Signed 17 LDS high school recruits. Most of this group is just
getting started in the program, but 4 are already not considered part of the
team and we are hearing from a pretty good source that one more who is
currently serving a mission is seriously considering not coming back and
transferring to the Pac 10 instead.
Before we give up the name, we want to wait a few more months to see if
this changes. We will say that this is a high profile player who made waves
as a freshman.
2008...Signed 15 LDS high school recruits a year ago. It's too early, but we
are sniffing at least three right now who won't last.
The numbers are rough and are skewed to show better than they really are
because we don't know yet what the ultimate attrition will be in the latest
recruiting classes.
Regardless, even if no other players leave the program from the most
recent classes, the numbers show the retention rate for LDS high school
signees for the last 10 years is 61 percent.
If you look at the early classes in the last decade which had time for a
class to work itself through the system, the retention rate for LDS high
school signees in the years 1998-2003 was only 47 percent.
We expect the recruiting years from 2004-2008, when it all shakes out and
attrition is accounted for, to be pretty similar.
Based on those retention numbers, there is a reason why BYU focuses on LDS
recruits in football.
Based on those same retention numbers, when it comes to signing non-LDS
players, BYU has more success in retaining jucos than high school recruits.
Who really knows what it means. Our best guess and extrapolation is that
the LDS Church demographics still lacks a propensity to produce good LDS
defensive backs.
We are still probably another decade and 7 million baptisms away from that
changing.
Hold the Hype
What really hits you in the face, however, is how over-hyped football
recruiting really is. When you go back and check on the "big names", LDS or
non-LDS, which signed with the Cougars, it is amazing to see how many of
them never worked out or left the program with eligibility remaining.
The two most publicized recruits that lasted only one year in the program
were Ben Olsen and Ofa Mohetau.
It happens with every recruiting class and will continue to happen. It
doesn't diminish the fun of following recruiting, but the actual results
don't match the hype. That holds true for almost every football program in
the country.
Recruits are like movies. They all are released with tons of hype, but
most go straight to DVD and are never seen or heard from again. The
blockbusters are very few and far between on the field and on the screen.
Then, of course you have a low-budget movie or player who beats the odds and
makes money on the screen and noise on the field.
BYU has had its share of them.
When it comes to recruiting, we will still refer to the trite phrases of
"blue chip and can't miss", but are adding a new adjective to our recruiting
jargon. That would be "Napoleon Dynamite".
It refers to recruits and movies that are totally unheralded that make
waves on the field and money at the box office and last for at least four or
five years in the program and on the screen.
NAMES AND GAMES OF SPRING
With the annual spring game put on ice for this year, we are publishing
the official BYU spring football roster.
Almost half of those names listed are probably guys of whom you have never
heard and who will not be listed on the roster this fall.
These are names you would have watched if the game was played. You
wouldn't have seen guys like Max Hall, Harvey Unga, Dennis Pitta, Jan
Jorgensen etc.
As another bonus, we are passing along the score of the Blue-White
contest, had it been played. Blue 16 White 10.
Here is the roster to help you predict your own score.
No. Name Ht. Wt. Pos. Cl. Hometown/Last
School Attended
90 Bernard Afutiti 6-1 262 DL Jr. Fontana, CA/Mt. SAC
College
51 Matt Ah You 5-11 220 LB Sr. Rancho Cucamonga, CA/
Lone Peak HS (UT)
72 Nick Alletto 6-6 318 OL Jr. Parker, CO/Ponderosa
HS
29 Luke Ashworth 6-2 201 WR Jr. Provo, UT/Timpview HS
43 Jordan Atkinson 6-3 243 LB Jr. Martinez, CA/Diablo
Valley JC
35 Matt Bauman 6-1 230 LB Sr. Salt Lake City,
UT/Skyline HS
58 Jeff Bell 6-0 218 LB Sr. Williamsburg,
VA/Bruton HS
5 Brandon Bradley 6-0 200 DB Jr. Tallahassee, FL/Lincoln
HS
89 Braden Brown 6-6 260 TE Fr. Salt Lake City,
UT/Highland HS
87 Rhen Brown 5-10 187 WR Fr. Summerville, SC/Lone
Peak HS (UT)
60 Terence Brown 6-3 351 OL So. Summerville,
SC/Summerville HS
32 Riley Bushman 6-1 215 LB Fr. Tucson, AZ/Sabino HS
11 O'Neill Chambers 6-2 210 WR So. Harmony, FL/Harmony HS
41 Coleby Clawson 6-3 235 LB Sr. Wales, UT/Snow College
34 Jefferson Court 6-3 212 LB Fr. Sandy, UT/Alta HS
12 Stephen Covey 5-11 198 WR So. Provo, UT/Timpview HS
92 Brett Denney 6-4 265 DL Sr. Thornton, CO/Legacy HS
10 J.J. Diluigi 5-9 200 RB So. Canyon Country,
CA/Canyon HS
42 Shawn Doman 6-2 232 LB Sr. Woodburn, OR/Canby HS
80 Matthew Edwards 6-3 195 WR So. N. Salt Lake, UT/Woods Cross
HS
96 Steven Fisher 6-4 250 DL So. Orem, UT/Timpanogas HS
26 Landon Fowler 5-11 185 DB Fr. Kaysville, UT/Davis HS
56 McKay Frandsen 6-3 225 LB Fr. American Fork, UT/American
Fork HS
48 Jameson Frazier 6-2 200 DB So. Draper, UT/Alta HS
16 Brenden Gaskins 6-4 215 QB Sr. Farmington, NM/Glendale
JC
88 Andrew George 6-5 250 TE Sr. Englewood, CO/Cherry
Creek HS
15 Max Hall 6-1 205 QB Sr. Mesa, AZ/Arizona
State
76 Braden Hansen 6-6 285 OL Fr. Sandy, UT/Alta HS
59 Chase Hansen 6-3 20 LB So. Draper, UT/Snow College
20 Daniel Hansen 5-10 195 RB So. Madera, CA/Madera HS
67 Nate Hartung 6-2 345 OL So. Butler, PA/Butler Area
HS
30 Connell Hess 6-0 210 LB Fr. Boise, ID/Capital HS
97 Tevita Hola 6-1 320 DL Sr. West Valley, UT/Snow
College
31 Tyler Holt 5-9 175 K/P So. Granite Bay,
CA/Granite Bay HS
47 Terrance Hooks 6-1 230 LB Sr. Tempe, AZ/Marcos de
Niza HS
45 Shane Hunter 5-10 235 LB Jr. Idaho Falls, ID/Snow
College
26 David Jackson 6-1 175 WR Fr. Provo, UT/Timpview HS
6 McKay Jacobson 5-11 190 WR So. Southlake, TX/Southlake
Carroll HS
23 Landon Jaussi 6-5 210 DB Jr. Wylie, TX/Southern
Virginia
85 Leon Johnson 6-0 185 WR Jr. Thatcher, AZ/Eastern
Arizona JC
21 Scott Johnson 5-11 185 DB Sr. Provo, UT/Timpview HS
84 Jan Jorgensen 6-3 260 DL Sr. Helper, UT/Carbon HS
55 Solomone Kafu 6-2 310 OL Fr. Rio Linda, CA/Rio Linda
HS
91 Rockey Kalamafoni 6-2 290 DL So. Portland, OR/Liahona HS
(Tonga)
28 Bryan Kariya 6-0 215 RB So. Kaysville, UT/Davis HS
7 Tyler Kozlowski 5-9 185 WR Jr. Wildwood, IL/Warren
Township HS
34 Tucker Lamb 5-9 195 RB Fr. Orem, UT/Orem HS
33 Ryan Love 5-10 175 RB So. Cameron Park,
CA/Ponderosa HS
5 Parker Mangum 6-4 210 QB Sr. Boise, ID/St. Mary's
16 Brady Marshall 5-8 180 DB So. Modesto, CA/Beyer HS
19 Matt Marshall 5-10 185 WR So. Salt Lake City,
UT/Skyline HS
96 Jonathan McCullough 6-5 230 TE Jr. Hillsboro, OR/Glencoe
HS
25 Steven McFarland 6-2 235 RB So. Lakeview, OR/Lakeview HS
13 Carter Mees 5-11 190 DB Fr. St. George, UT/Pine
View HS
27 Blake Morgan 5-11, 195 DB So. Greeley, CO/Greeley West
HS
17 Rex Morgan 5-10 175 DB Fr. Greeley, CO/Greeley West
HS
82 Mike Muehlmann 6-5 225 TE Fr. American Fork, UT/American
Fork HS
39 Grant Nelson 6-3 225 LB Jr Sewickley,
PA/Hopewell HS
3 Garrett Nicholson 5-9 180 DB Fr. Salt Lake City, UT/West
HS
53 Austin Nielsen 6-0 230 LB Fr. Glendale, AZ/O'Connor
HS
36 Billy Oden 5-10 220 LB Fr. Waimanalo, HI/Kailua
HS
38 Brandon Ogletree 6-0 225 LB Fr. McKinney, TX/McKinney HS
17 Paul Olsen 5-11 195 DB Fr. American Fork,
UT/American Fork HS
59 John Pace 6-2 210 DS Sr. Yorba Linda,
CA/Esperanza HS
38 Mitch Payne 6-2 210 K Jr. North Ogden,
UT/Weber HS
1 Jordan Pendleton 6-2 230 DB So. South Jordan, UT/Bingham
HS
86 B.J. Peterson 6-3 200 WR Jr. Salt Lake City,
UT/Brighton HS
98 Matt Peterson 6-5 265 DL Fr. Bluffdale,
UT/Riverton HS
32 Dennis Pitta 6-5 250 TE Sr. Moorpark,
CA/Moorpark HS
31 Byron Putnam 5-11 195 DB So. Draper, UT/UofU
57 Matt Putnam 6-6 265 DL So. Brigham City, UT/Box
Elder HS
70 Matt Reynolds 6-6 320 OL So. Provo, UT/Timpview HS
22 Andrew Rich 6-3 215 DB Jr. Ogden, UT/Snow College
37 Vic So'oto 6-3 250 LB Sr. Carlsbad,
CA/Carlsbad HS
73 Jason Speredon 6-5 305 OL Jr. West Valley, UT/Granger
HS
63 Jesse Taufi 6-4 302 OL Jr. Long Beach,
CA/Long Beach CC
75 Stetson Tenney 6-5 295 OL Fr. Show Low, AZ/Show Low
HS
30 Malosi Te'o 5-10 200 RB Fr. Laie, HI/Kahuku HS
2 Shiloah Te'o 5-10 205 DB So. Laie, HI/Kahuku HS
24 StevenThomas 5-11 180 DB So. Chino Hills, CA/Chino
Hills HS
62 Marco Thorson 6-3 310 OL Fr. Ramona, CA/Ramona HS
52 Russell Tialavea 6-3 290 DL Sr. Oceanside,
CA/Oceanside HS
46 Masi Tuitama 6-2 215 LB Fr. Oxnard, CA/Pacifica HS
94 David Tuitupou 6-5 255 DL So. Orem, UT/Mountain View
HS
18 Travis Uale 6-2 195 DB So. Hawaii Kai,
HI/Kamehameha HS
45 Harvey Unga 6-0 240 RB Jr. Provo, UT/Timpview HS
44 Dan Van Sweden 6-2 235 LB Sr. West Point, UT/Northridge
HS
99 A.J. Van Valkenburg 6-1 195 LB Jr. South Jordan,
UT/Snow College
49 Jadon Wagner 6-4 235 LB So. Lethbridge, Alberta/LCI
21 Neal Watterson 6-0 180 RB Jr. Charlotte, NC/Charlotte
Country Day
9 Kase Wells 6-2 185 WR Jr. Basin City,
WA/BYU-Idaho
64 R.J. Willing 6-5 310 OL Sr. Kahuku,
HI/Kamehameha HS
71 Rick Wolfley 6-3 350 DL Jr. Afton, WY/Star Valley
HS
50 Tanner Zylstra 6-3 225 LB Fr. LaVerne, CA/Bonita HS
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